Week 20 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-120/-109).

The public has bet the OVER up to 229.5 (-120) after it opened @ 224.5 (-114).

Pros

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 137.0 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Ravens grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.
Lamar Jackson’s 226.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a remarkable gain in his passing skills over last year’s 191.0 mark.
Lamar Jackson’s 68.0% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a remarkable progression in his passing accuracy over last season’s 62.9% rate.
This year, the shaky Houston Texans defense has given up a massive 71.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.

Cons

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Ravens are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
In this week’s contest, Lamar Jackson is predicted by the model to have the 2nd-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.6.
The Houston cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
221
Passing Yards