Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Lions vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 286.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 286.5 (-110) after it opened @ 272.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 59.7 per game on average).
- The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
- The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.7 per game) this year.
- Jared Goff rates as one of the best passers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 268.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 57.5% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast Jared Goff to attempt 35.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all QBs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
290
Passing Yards
290
Passing Yards
