Week 20 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 268.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 268.5 (-115) after it opened @ 265.5 (-115).

Pros

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 126.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
Brock Purdy has thrown for substantially more adjusted yards per game (265.0) this year than he did last year (151.0).
Brock Purdy’s 69.6% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a meaningful progression in his passing precision over last year’s 66.4% mark.
Brock Purdy’s throwing efficiency has gotten a boost this year, compiling 9.54 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.97 mark last year.

Cons

With a 10-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
This week, Brock Purdy is predicted by the model to average the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.6.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards