NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
49ers vs. Packers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 268.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 268.5 (-115) after it opened @ 265.5 (-115).
Pros
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 126.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
- Brock Purdy has thrown for substantially more adjusted yards per game (265.0) this year than he did last year (151.0).
- Brock Purdy’s 69.6% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a meaningful progression in his passing precision over last year’s 66.4% mark.
- Brock Purdy’s throwing efficiency has gotten a boost this year, compiling 9.54 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.97 mark last year.
Cons
- With a 10-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
- This week, Brock Purdy is predicted by the model to average the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.6.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards
256
Passing Yards
