Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Davis Mills from EV Insight

Davis MillsPassing Yards

Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 226.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 226.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a giant 10-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 36.9 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Davis Mills has been among the weakest QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 200.0 yards per game while ranking in the 25th percentile.
Davis Mills’s throwing accuracy has declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 60.4%.
Davis Mills has been among the worst per-play passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 6.50 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 22nd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards