Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With so many star fantasy football players dealing with serious injuries, taking a deep dive into usage rates is going to be as important as ever.
Each week, our usage report will look at one utilization stat that was noticeable and explain what that might mean for fantasy football moving forward. Let’s look at what we learned in Week 2.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 2
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Curtis Samuel WR4
Curtis Samuel was somehow the first or second Bills receiver off the board in redraft leagues. There was a chance his 27.6% snap rate Week 1 was due to his decreased reps leading up to the season opener due to a turf toe injury, but after Week 2’s 26.7% snap rate, we can clearly see that he’s behind Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins on the depth chart. It’s really hard to see a world where Samuel’s opportunities will increase. If you haven’t already done so, you can feel free to drop Samuel now for a better option at WR.
Miami Dolphins: Questionable Opportunities for Backup RBs
Thursday, a lot of eyes were centered on the Miami RB situation thanks to Raheem Mostert getting sent to the IR and De’Von Achane playing with an ankle injury. To everyone’s surprise, Achane still dominated the snap counts, and we saw very little of both Jeff Wilson and Jaylen Wright. Even with the game completely out of reach, the Dolphins kept putting Achane on the field, and Wright/Wilson only saw a combined 38% of the remaining snaps. The Dolphins run game is still something you want to keep an eye on, but if you have shares of Wilson or Wright, we probably don’t want
New England Patriots: Hunter Henry Is Jacoby Brissett’s No. 1 Target
Hunter Henry had 50% of the targets while leading all pass-catchers in snaps. With the tight end position in shambles this season, outside of Brock Bowers, Henry might somehow be the safest bet at the position as long as Jacoby Brissett is under center.
New York Jets: Both Breece Hall and Braelon Allen Are in for a Ton of Targets
The 2024 version of Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to be slinging the ball down the field too often. Through two full games, Rodgers has attempted a grand total of four passes 20-plus yards down the field. This past Sunday, he targeted Hall and Allen a total of 12 times, leading to 9 catches for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Back to Reality for Isaiah Likely
Isaiah Likely was the talk of the fantasy football world after his monstrous Opening Night performance against the Chiefs. With 10 days to prepare for a home matchup against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders, it was expected for Likely to have another strong performance. But after just 3 targets, 2 catches and a grand total of 2 air yards, it’s safe to say Likely will not be this year’s TE1. On top of that, after seeing just 49% of the snaps compared to 66% in Week 1, we might have to even consider benching him depending on the options available.
Cincinnati Bengals: Zack Moss Over Chase Brown
While it was definitely concerning to see Chase Brown only log 33% of the Bengals snaps in Week 1, it was absolutely alarming to see him log just 20% in Week 2. Even worse for Brown is the fact that Zack Moss is getting 87.5% of the goal line carries.
Cleveland Browns: D’Onta Foreman Is Viable
After getting just one snap Week 1, D’Onta Foreman came out of nowhere and got 38% of the snaps at the RB position in Week 2. With Pierre Strong dealing with a hamstring injury, Foreman’s opportunities are going to be here to stay. Most importantly, Foreman also got the only two goal line carries.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Arthur Smith Shenanigans Continue
Last week, Mike Randle brought up the “genius” of Arthur Smith, and the fact that Van Jefferson saw more snaps than George Pickens. One week later, and Jefferson still saw more snaps than Pickens. While Justin Fields is the more exciting option at QB, I think it isn’t a stretch to think that the Steelers WR room would prefer for Russell Wilson to be under center.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Cam Akers Is the True Joe Mixon Handcuff
Joe Mixon was banged up in the second half of the Sunday night game against the Bears. Even though Dare Ogunbowale saw 32% of the snaps at RB behind Mixon’s 47%, he only got 2 carries. On the other hand, Akers saw 21% of the snaps (his first snaps of the season) and got 7 carries. If Mixon misses time due to his ankle injury, I expect Akers to slide in to his role while Ogunbowale remains a third-down option.
Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman Is in a Rough Situation
While Week 1 saw Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin see fewer snaps, fewer targets and more fantasy points than Michael Pittman, Week 2 saw Pierce get more snaps, the same number of targets, and more fantasy points than Pittman. Anthony Richardson’s accuracy issues are naturally leading Pierce to be more of a safety net for the sophomore QB.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne Is Not Going to Be a Bell Cow
Even though Tank Bigsby was ruled out with a concussion after taking a huge hit on a kickoff return, Etienne still only saw 72% of the snaps from the backfield. D’Ernest Johnson stepped right into Bigsby’s backup role and took the remaining 28% of the snaps. As long as Etienne can still produce with his lessened workload, it’s no big deal, but it looks like we’re not going to see the 80-90% workload that he saw in early 2023.
Tennessee Titans: DeAndre Hopkins Still Isn’t Getting Many Opportunities
There’s almost no chance DeAndre Hopkins is at 100%. After seeing just 27% of the snaps Week 1, he followed it up with just 44% of the snaps Week 2. I don’t necessarily think we can just safely assume that the snap counts will rapidly increase, and even so, these snaps aren’t even resulting in many touches for Nuk. Sunday, he caught just 1 ball for 9 yards.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton Is Doing a Lot of Cardio
Courtland Sutton continues to lead Broncos receivers in snaps by a wide margin, but those snaps aren’t exactly leading to much of anything. Sutton saw 54 of 61 total snaps (91%) and turned that into 1 catch on 4 targets. Even with fewer snaps, Denver’s WR2, Josh Reynolds, has been able to bring home more catches in each of the first two weeks of the season. And even with Devaughn Vele out of the lineup, Lil’Jordan Humphrey stepped in to the WR3 role and had much more of a presence than Sutton.
Kansas City Chiefs: Carson Steele Has the Inside Track to Pick Up Pacheco’s Workload
Carson Steele outsnapped Samaje Perine 14-9 and also got a total of 7 carries in those 14 snaps, while Perine didn’t receive any carries in his 9 snaps. It’s going to be interesting to see if Kareem Hunt will get some opportunities in Isiah Pacheco’s absence, but even so, he’s currently signed to the practice squad and will need some time to get reacclimated to the Chiefs system.
Las Vegas Raiders: Alexander Mattison Is Not the RB1
After earning 60% of the RB snaps Week 1, Mattison only saw 22% of the snaps Week 2. Raiders HC Antonio Pierce did go on record to say that he wants to get Zamir White 20-plus touches per game, so we probably should expect Mattison to continue with a lesser role moving forward. Still, it’s important to note that Mattison got all of the goal line carries against the Ravens.
Los Angeles Chargers: J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards Have a Truly Even Split
Week 2 really showed how similar of a workload J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards have. They had a nearly identical snap share (32 for Dobbins, 33 for Edwards) and got the same number of touches (18 to 18). It’s pretty clear to the entire fantasy football world that Dobbins appears to be the more dynamic back, but don’t be surprised if Edwards outshines Dobbins at some point.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: 3-Headed Monster at RB
The split between Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle continued, but Deuce Vaughn saw some more opportunities than he did Week 1, even before the game was out of reach. There’s still a lot of moving parts to this three-way split at the RB position in Dallas, but Elliott will likely continue to get most, if not all of the goal line carries.
New York Giants: Malik Nabers, 66.7% Target Share and 62.5% of the Receptions
Daniel Jones is absolutely peppering targets at Malik Nabers. While both Nabers and Darius Slayton respectively had an 89% and 88% snap share, Slayton saw just a fraction of the targets Nabers did.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jahan Dotson Isn’t Getting Many Looks
In just his second game in an Eagles uniform, Jahan Dotson was on the field for 79% of the snaps and twice as much as any of the other three receiving options available with A.J. Brown out of the lineup. Even so, he only walked away with 1 catch on 1 target while Britain Covey was able to catch 6 balls on 6 targets in just 32% of the snaps.
Washington Commanders: Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler in a 50/50 Split
The Commanders are very dependent on the success of their ground attack, and Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are definitely key pieces in that attack. On Week 2, while the snap share slightly leaned toward Robinson (43-31), Ekeler is still getting just as many red zone attempts as Robinson (they each had 4), and plays a bigger part in the passing game.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Cole Kmet Still Might Be the TE1
After Gerald Everett walked away with a higher snap share Week 1, we saw Cole Kmet end the game with more than twice as many snaps as Everett (54-25). Everett has always been more of a vertical threat from the TE position, but with Caleb’s accuracy issues and lack of time to throw, it’s hard to imagine Everett being in a situation where he’s a better option than Kmet for fantasy purposes as long as the snap share is the way it is now.
Detroit Lions: Tim Patrick in Position to Take the WR3 Spot
While the Lions were hoping Donovan Peoples-Jones would emerge as the WR3, taking Josh Reynolds’ old role, DPJ’s struggles paved the way for Kalif Raymond to start the season in the starting role. The Lions brought in Tim Patrick and Allen Robinson after roster cuts with the hope that one of them would take over the spot, and it’s looking like Patrick has a bit of an edge right now. In his first game in Honolulu Blue, Patrick outsnapped Raymond (33-31), and with HC Dan Campbell making it known that he prefers Raymond in a reserve role and special teams weapon, I expect Patrick’s snap share to increase moving forward.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs Is a Bell Cow with Malik Willis Under Center
We knew the Green Bay offense would be completely different with Jordan Love out and Malik Willis in, but I don’t think many expected to see Josh Jacobs end his Week 2 with over 32 carries. Yes, both Emanuel Wilson and MarShawn Lloyd got some snaps and some touches, but this Green Bay ground game is heavily dependent on Jacobs (especially with Lloyd now on IR).
Minnesota Vikings: Jalon Nailor Is WR2 with Jordan Addison Out
Even though Brandon Powell outsnapped Jalen Nailor Week 1, we were able to see that Nailor was Jordan Addison’s replacement with Addison completely out of the lineup. He ended up leading all Vikings receivers in snaps due to a Justin Jefferson injury.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Anyone’s Game in the Falcons Receiving Room
The Falcons did not run much 12-personnel against the Eagles and instead focused on 11-personnel, which led to the trio of Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud being on the field together for all but two snaps. With Mooney having a more impactful game than what we saw Week 1, and Kyle Pitts only getting 3 catches on 4 targets, it looks like Bijan Robinson is really the only Falcon on the roster we can count on for consistent production.
Carolina Panthers: Xavier Legette 42% Snap Rate
With Andy Dalton stepping into the QB1 position, there’s renewed optimism for the Carolina Panthers receivers. Unfortunately for Xavier Legette managers, the likelihood of a Panthers offensive resurgence including Legette is rather slim. Legette was outsnapped by Jonathan Mingo (30-20).
New Orleans Saints: 0% TE Usage
Derek Carr only threw the ball 16 times in the Saints’ blowout victory against the Cowboys, but only one of those 16 targets went to the TE position (a dumpoff to Taysom Hill). Foster Moreau continued to get the majority of snaps (80% snap rate) at TE even though both Hill and Juwan Johnson continue to dominate rostership.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Is Chris Godwin Tampa Bay’s WR1?
The trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan each saw 38 snaps in Tampa Bay’s upset against the Lions, but Godwin ended with as many targets as Evans and McMillan combined, and was able to bring in 7 of Baker Mayfield’s 12 completions, including a beautiful touchdown.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Apparently It Is Kyler Murray’s Job to Get Marvin Harrison Jr. the Ball
After Marvin Harrison’s forgettable Week 1 debut where he only brought in 1 catch on 3 targets, he redeemed himself with 4 catches on 8 targets and getting into the end zone twice. Even more notably, Harrison ended the day with a whopping 3 end zone targets.
Los Angeles Rams: WR Room in Shambles
With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both landing on the IR, they are being replaced by two castoffs in Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson. It’s very possible that Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay are going to be able to make it work with the remaining bodies, but if it happens, it’ll require either Jordan Whittington or Tutu Atwell to contribute. Atwell appears to be the preferred option for Atwell, but Whittington outsnapped him by a wide margin (26-10).
San Francisco 49ers: One-Man Show at RB
Outside of Issac Guerendo’s 1 carry, Jordan Mason received all of the RB snaps at the HB position for the 49ers. Yes, we’re still seeing a healthy dose of Deebo Samuel in the backfield, but Mason’s 81% snap rate and 21 total touches puts him in the top 10 at the RB position until Christian McCaffrey returns.
Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet Gets Elite Usage Without Kenneth Walker
Zach Charbonnet got the start with Kenneth Walker out with an oblique injury. He ended the day with 67 of 70 (96%) possible offensive snaps as well as 19 total touches, 5 catches and a touchdown.
