Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Fantasy production has been hard to come by throughout the first two weeks. However, there were some impressive performances in Week 2, especially by this highly regarded rookie class.
As a whole, NFL offenses once again are starting slow to begin the year. Just six teams had 26 or more points in Week 2. Fourteen teams hit that mark in Week 1. As long as scoring remains down, it will be difficult to produce consistent fantasy results.
Each week gives us more data to evaluate from a fantasy perspective. There are plenty of takeaways (good and bad) from what we have seen in the NFL so far. Check out Week 2’s risers and fallers below.
Risers
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray was a popular offseason pick in “Dark Horse to finish QB1” articles throughout the summer. There may have been some doubt after his general struggles against the Bills in Week 1 (21-of-31 passing for 162 yards and a touchdown with five carries for 57 yards).
After Week 2, fantasy managers are breathing a sigh of relief.
Murray was fantastic against the Rams in Week 2. He completed 17-of-21 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns. He added five carries for 59 yards on the ground. And he did all of that while sitting a majority of the fourth quarter in a blowout win.
The veteran quarterback continues to look comfortable in Drew Petzing’s offense and looks very confident running the ball after his 2022 ACL tear. Murray should be a mainstay in the top-5 finishers at the quarterback position this season given his mobility and the upgraded weapons in Arizona this season.
Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets
Fantasy managers may be navigating a split backfield with the Jets in 2024.
Rookie Braelon Allen carved out a solid role against the Titans in Week 2, playing on 20 of the team’s 57 snaps in Week 2’s victory. This game was close the entire afternoon, which means Allen was working in normal game situations while giving Breece Hall a breather.
The Jets will certainly feel confident giving Allen a role in the offense given how well he capitalized on his opportunities in Week 2. The rookie had seven carries for 33 yards and a touchdown while adding two receptions for 23 yards and a receiving touchdown.
The Jets defense should have little problem keeping games close in neutral or positive game scripts this season, which means that we should see plenty of Allen throughout the year. He should be on the radar for fantasy managers as a bench stash with streaming upside once bye weeks arrive.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR, Arizona Cardinals
We will give some love to two of the top 10 wide receivers drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft. Both players had their struggles in Week 1 but rebounded with big days in Week 2.
Malik Nabers was far better in his debut (five receptions on seven targets for 66 yards), but there was plenty of concern that a bad offense would limit his ability to produce in fantasy. Those concerns can be put to rest for at least a week, with Nabers going off for 10 receptions (on 17 targets!) for 127 yards and a touchdown. Sure, it was against the Commanders, but it’s hard to see anybody else on this offense stealing many targets from the rookie. He could get there in fantasy simply due to otherworldly volume.
Conversely, social media wasn’t afraid to label Marvin Harrison Jr. as a bust after an underwhelming first game (one reception for four yards). Harrison rebounded in a big way in his second game, posting four receptions for 130 yards and two touchdowns.
It is very unlikely that we will see Nabers consistently get 17 targets or Harrison take 50% of his touches for touchdowns. But both players proved they belong in the NFL, which should give fantasy managers peace of mind.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Quentin Johnston continues to rebound nicely after an abysmal rookie year (38 receptions for 431 yards and two touchdowns).
Johnston produced modestly in Week 1, catching three of five targets for 38 yards. But he did flash the ability to generate yards after the catch and was running more favorable routes closer to the line of scrimmage.
The second-year receiver was far more productive in Week 2 and showed the ability to catch targets down the field, an issue that plagued him in 2023. He converted five of his six targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns. He also led the team in routes run (19) with D.J. Chark out and Josh Palmer working through an injury.
The Chargers still aren’t a great environment for wide receivers in fantasy, but Johnston continues to make the most of his opportunities. He can continue to be fantasy-relevant, especially as the team’s most viable red-zone threat due to his size.
Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders offense has been ugly through two weeks, but Brock Bowers is showing that his playmaking ability at Georgia will translate to the NFL.
Through two games, the rookie tight end has caught 15 of 19 targets for 156 yards. While those numbers aren’t overly impressive, the rookie’s 26% target share through two games is. Bowers has the speed to turn short receptions into big yardage, which means it is only a matter of time before he has an explosive fantasy week.
The tight end position has been abysmal in fantasy to start the season, but Bowers has shown that he will earn a consistent target share. It hasn’t taken much to be fantasy-relevant as a tight end in 2024, which means he has as good of a chance as anyone to consistently finish as a top-5 option, regardless of offensive environment.
Fallers
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young is proving to be the exception to Dave Canales’ quarterback reclamation magic. Through two games, the second-year quarterback is completing just 55% of his passes for 245 yards and zero touchdowns with three interceptions.
While both defenses he faced have proven to be stout to start the 2024 season, Young is still consistently missing passes on offense.
Is it time to throw in the towel on Young’s career? Probably not.
But through two weeks, 2024 is looking eerily similar to his 2023 production, which makes it easy to drop him in fantasy until he shows he’s capable of producing a fantasy-viable week.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Things looked good for fantasy managers who drafted Jerome Ford in Week 1. The Browns running back saw 75% of the team’s offensive snaps and finished with 12 carries for 44 yards and a rushing touchdown with six receptions (on seven targets) for 25 yards.
However, Week 2 muddied the water in the Browns backfield.
Ford played on just 32 of the Browns’ 72 snaps in Week 2, losing work to both D’Onta Foreman (27 snaps) and Pierre Strong Jr. (10 snaps). Ford produced just seven carries for 64 yards while adding one reception for zero yards. The only major difference between Week 1 and Week 2 for Cleveland was the fact that the team led most of the game instead of trailing.
It is too early in the season to take a definitive stance on Cleveland’s backfield distribution. However, we now have enough data points to make an educated guess that Ford will see an increased role in games where Cleveland trails and will be subject to a three-man backfield in games where the team has a lead.
This situation bears monitoring going forward, especially since Nick Chubb will likely return at some point and will further complicate the backfield situation.
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts
It has been an unfortunate start to Adonai Mitchell’s NFL career. Mitchell has just two receptions on nine targets for 32 yards in his first two games. Mitchell just missed having a massive Week 1 on deep targets, but Week 2 was a major disappointment for the Colts offense.
The continued accuracy struggles from Anthony Richardson certainly didn’t help. The second-year quarterback remains a below-average passer, following up an abysmal 47% completion percentage in Week 1 with a 50% completion percentage in Week 2. Richardson once again cleared 200 passing yards but was far less productive as a rusher and had three interceptions against Green Bay.
Further complicating matters is the impending return of second-year receiver Josh Downs. Mitchell (33 snaps) continued to operate behind Alec Pierce (53 snaps) and Michael Pittman Jr. (48 snaps) in the team’s offense. Pierce continued his strong start to the season in Week 2 and now has eight receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns to begin the year.
If Downs returns in Week 3, he will likely elevate to being one of the team’s top two receivers. Mitchell will likely be a rotational piece for both Downs and Pierce, cutting down his already part-time role.
Mitchell is still a hold in the short term given his playmaking ability but could easily become a drop if he can’t unseat Pierce from his role in the offense once Downs is healthy again.
Miami’s Pass-Catchers
The Dolphins offense has struggled to start the season but will now be borderline unwatchable with Tua Tagovailoa suffering another concussion in Week 2. It is anybody’s guess as to if we see Tua again this season, much less in an NFL uniform.
That is terrible news for Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and even Jonnu Smith.
Miami turned to long-time backup Skylar Thompson once again after Tagovailoa was knocked out of the game. Thompson was inefficient as a passer, completing just 8-of-14 passes for 80 yards. The veteran has completed just 57.1% of his passes in his career.
If Tua’s absence will be for an extended period, the team could look to free agency (Ryan Tannehill) or in the trade market to try to find a consistent, veteran signal-caller. But as it stands, the team is content rolling with Thompson, which is bad news for all of Miami’s explosive pass-catching weapons.
Both Hill and Waddle will still be fantasy-relevant, but it seems very unlikely that they will be able to do it at the same time with bad quarterback play.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
For the first time in a long time, Travis Kelce was not the TE1 in fantasy drafts. Still, he was highly drafted by fantasy managers expecting a consistent weekly floor from the tight end position.
After two games, there may be reasons to worry about his ability to provide that floor.
Kelce followed up an underwhelming Week 1 (three receptions on four targets for 34 yards) with an even worse performance in Week 2 against the Bengals (one reception on three targets for five yards).
Patrick Mahomes has more weapons than ever this season and has been consistently funneling targets to Rashee Rice (15 targets) and Isiah Pacheco (eight targets) over Kelce. The team also added explosive receiver Xavier Worthy in the draft and has been doing their best to design touches for him as well.
There will certainly be a “vintage” Kelce performance at some point this season. But his days as a locked-and-loaded top-2 tight end in fantasy look to be over as long as the Chiefs pass-catching group can stay healthy.
