Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 19
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+102/-132).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+102) after it opened @ 61.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.0 total plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.
- In this contest, Isiah Pacheco is predicted by the projection model to place in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs with 18.6 rush attempts.
- In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs profiles as the best in the league last year.
Cons
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to run on 38.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards
86
Rushing Yards
