Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 19
Cowboys vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).
Pros
- In this week’s game, Aaron Jones is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs with 16.7 carries.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
Cons
- This week’s line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Packers, who are huge -7-point underdogs.
- The projections expect the Packers to be the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 63.6 total plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The Packers have run the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.8 plays per game.
- The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
