Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 19
Lions vs. Rams
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-120) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- The Lions have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- This week, Sam LaPorta is anticipated by the model to rank in the 83rd percentile among tight ends with 5.4 targets.
- As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
Cons
- The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
