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Week 19 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

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Pat Freiermuth

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 19

Bills vs. Steelers

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-118) after it opened @ 21.5 (-112).

Pros

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers may throw the ball less in this game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Mason Rudolph.
  • The Steelers are a giant 10-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • In this contest, Pat Freiermuth is predicted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 80th percentile among tight ends with 4.4 targets.
Cons

  • The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to call just 63.0 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (just 55.8 per game on average).

Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards

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