Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 19
Lions vs. Rams
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 94.5 yards (+104/-134).
The public has bet the OVER up to 94.5 (+104) after it opened @ 85.5 (-114).
Pros
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- The Lions have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 11.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
Cons
- The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 58.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
115
Receiving Yards
115
Receiving Yards
