Week 19 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-110) after it opened @ 250.5 (-115).

Pros

Right now, the most pass-heavy offense in the league (70.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.0 total plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
In this week’s game, Patrick Mahomes is anticipated by the projection model to average the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.6.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.

Projection

THE BLITZ
268
Passing Yards