Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 19
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-110) after it opened @ 250.5 (-115).
Pros
- Right now, the most pass-heavy offense in the league (70.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.0 total plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
- In this week’s game, Patrick Mahomes is anticipated by the projection model to average the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.6.
- The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.
Projection
THE BLITZ
268
Passing Yards
268
Passing Yards
