Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 10th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 45.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to earn 17.1 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Nick Chubb has earned 63.7% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Nick Chubb has averaged 89.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (98th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.26 yards-per-carry.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards