Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Steelers vs. Browns
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 10th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 45.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to earn 17.1 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- Nick Chubb has earned 63.7% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- Nick Chubb has averaged 89.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (98th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.26 yards-per-carry.
- The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards
80
Rushing Yards
