Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jeff Wilson from EV Insight

Jeff WilsonRushing Yards

Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-130) after it opened @ 61.5 (-113).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to accrue 13.0 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Jeffery Wilson has been a more important option in his team’s running game this year (48.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (27.9%).
Jeffery Wilson has averaged 53.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (75th percentile).

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.2% run rate.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.6 plays per game.
The New York Jets defense has had the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 4.25 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best group of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards