NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Titans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Titans to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.
- In this game, Derrick Henry is anticipated by the predictive model to finish in the 82nd percentile among RBs with 15.9 carries.
- Derrick Henry checks in as one of the top RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.07 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 78th percentile.
Cons
- At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
- Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
- Derrick Henry has been much less involved in his offense’s rushing attack this season (65.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (80.1%).
- Derrick Henry’s 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season shows a material drop-off in his running proficiency over last season’s 91.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
