Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).

Pros

The model projects the Titans to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.
In this game, Derrick Henry is anticipated by the predictive model to finish in the 82nd percentile among RBs with 15.9 carries.
Derrick Henry checks in as one of the top RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.07 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Cons

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has been much less involved in his offense’s rushing attack this season (65.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (80.1%).
Derrick Henry’s 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season shows a material drop-off in his running proficiency over last season’s 91.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards