Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Seahawks vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-130/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-130) after it opened @ 29.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Rams are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 7.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Higbee has been among the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 38.0 yards per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.
- Tyler Higbee’s ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this season, compiling 6.03 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 3.51 rate last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.3 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
- Tyler Higbee has been used less as a potential target this year (69.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (85.1%).
- Tyler Higbee has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
