Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-130/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-130) after it opened @ 29.5 (-110).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Rams are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 7.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been among the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 38.0 yards per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.
Tyler Higbee’s ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this season, compiling 6.03 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 3.51 rate last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.3 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
Tyler Higbee has been used less as a potential target this year (69.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (85.1%).
Tyler Higbee has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards