Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-115) after it opened @ 27.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Jets are a 4-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a terrific 34.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to pass rush.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have used play action on a lowly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
