Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-131) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to accumulate 4.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a terrific 76.9% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.
Noah Fant’s talent in picking up extra yardage have improved this year, averaging 5.76 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 4.10 rate last year.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Cons

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Noah Fant has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (53.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (76.4%).
Noah Fant has totaled far fewer air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 42.0) to TEs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards