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Chris Meaney
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Seahawks vs. Rams
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-131) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to accumulate 4.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
- Noah Fant has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a terrific 76.9% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.
- Noah Fant’s talent in picking up extra yardage have improved this year, averaging 5.76 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 4.10 rate last year.
- The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Noah Fant has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (53.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (76.4%).
- Noah Fant has totaled far fewer air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 42.0) to TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
