Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-114) after it opened @ 30.5 (-115).

Pros

The Patriots are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accrue 6.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Cons

Hunter Henry has posted far fewer air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (46.0 per game).
Hunter Henry’s 25.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 34.8.
Hunter Henry has put up many fewer receiving yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).
The Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 34.0) to TEs this year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus TEs this year, allowing 5.38 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards