Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-114) after it opened @ 30.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accrue 6.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
- The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Cons
- Hunter Henry has posted far fewer air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (46.0 per game).
- Hunter Henry’s 25.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 34.8.
- Hunter Henry has put up many fewer receiving yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).
- The Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 34.0) to TEs this year.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus TEs this year, allowing 5.38 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
