Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-115) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to accrue 9.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf has compiled quite a few more air yards this season (103.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).
DK Metcalf’s 68.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 96th percentile for WRs.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (161.0) versus WRs this year.

Cons

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
DK Metcalf’s talent in picking up extra yardage have worsened this season, accumulating a measly 2.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.97 figure last season.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards