WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Steelers vs. Browns
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.8% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to garner 8.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
- Diontae Johnson has accrued a colossal 89.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Diontae Johnson has posted quite a few less receiving yards per game (57.0) this year than he did last year (73.0).
- Diontae Johnson has been among the least efficient receivers in football, averaging a measly 6.82 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 4th percentile among wideouts
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
