Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-110).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.8% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to garner 8.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson has accrued a colossal 89.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Diontae Johnson has posted quite a few less receiving yards per game (57.0) this year than he did last year (73.0).
Diontae Johnson has been among the least efficient receivers in football, averaging a measly 6.82 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 4th percentile among wideouts

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards