Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Skylar Thompson from EV Insight

Skylar ThompsonPassing Yards

Right now, Skylar Thompson’s passing yards prop is set at 179.5 yards (-109/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 179.5 (-125) after it opened @ 182.5 (-113).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have utilized play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.6 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 213.0 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in football vs. the New York Jets defense this year (67.4%).
The New York Jets pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, conceding 6.92 yards-per-target: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards