Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 324.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 324.5 (-133) after it opened @ 313.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 42.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the top quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a terrific 335.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
Opposing teams have passed for the 3rd-most yards in football (267.0 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.

Cons

The Chiefs are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
343
Passing Yards