Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Flacco from EV Insight

Joe FlaccoPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Flacco’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 198.5 (-113).

Pros

The Jets are a 4-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Flacco to attempt 38.9 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Cons

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a lowly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
266
Passing Yards