Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Deshaun Watson from EV Insight

Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards

Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 207.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 207.5 (-110) after it opened @ 208.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns O-line has afforded their QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 30.7 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the league vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.2%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards