Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Steelers vs. Browns
Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 207.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 207.5 (-110) after it opened @ 208.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the NFL.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line has afforded their QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 30.7 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the league vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.2%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards
215
Passing Yards
