Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 187.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 187.5 (-110) after it opened @ 182.5 (-115).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Rams are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Baker Mayfield’s throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 61.9% to 66.0%.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.02 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in football.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.3 plays per game.
Baker Mayfield has attempted just 9.6 throws per game this year, grading out in the 6th percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
208
Passing Yards