Week 18 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

We turn the page to Week 18 for our final moneyline underdog pick of the season. Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 18 of the 2024 season.

Week 18 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Vikings +2.5 at Lions

(+130, FanDuel Sportsbook)

I simply cannot go against the scalding-hot Vikings in an epic battle for the No. 1 overall seed at Detroit in Week 18. 

In their first matchup of the season, the Vikings staged a huge comeback after falling behind 21-10 and actually took the lead at 29-28 with just five minutes left. Detroit escaped with a 31-29 victory after a Jake Bates 44-yard field goal. 

The Lions are struggling on defense, and have allowed 31 or more points in three of their last four games. While they have gone 3-1 in those matchups, they will now play a Vikings team that is significantly healthier and more balanced. Minnesota’s defense ranks third overall in defensive DVOA, including first overall against the pass. The Vikings pass rush has been strong all season, ranking third in the NFL in sacks per game. 

Minnesota’s offense has been fantastic, especially quarterback Sam Darnold. In the Vikings’ last four games (all wins), Darnold has thrown 11 touchdowns with just two interceptions. He has eclipsed 300 yards in three of the Vikings’ last six contests. 

I am betting against the Lions sweeping the Vikings this season, especially given their defensive injuries. It’s been a great season for Detroit, but Minnesota will earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC Sunday night. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.30 Units