Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (+108/-148).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-148) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 14.3 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this year (59.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (78.8%).
Najee Harris’s ground efficiency (3.60 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (5th percentile among RBs).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 89 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards