Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 72.1% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Conklin has been among the top pass-game TEs this year, averaging a stellar 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have utilized play action on a measly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards