Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Commanders
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+102/-132).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+102) after it opened @ 46.5 (-112).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- At just 27.18 seconds per play, the Jets offense grades out as the 10th-quickest paced in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year.
- The projections expect Breece Hall to notch 14.5 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
- Breece Hall has been given 54.8% of his team’s run game usage this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- The Commanders defense owns the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 4.55 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The projections expect the New York Jets to be the 9th-least run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.6% run rate.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the worst in football last year in run-blocking.
- Breece Hall has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (43.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).
- Breece Hall’s 3.9 adjusted yards per carry this season reflects a meaningful reduction in his rushing talent over last season’s 5.8 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
