Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Steelers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-120) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Steelers to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 4.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Pat Freiermuth’s 64.5% Adjusted Catch% this season shows an impressive drop-off in his receiving talent over last season’s 67.8% figure.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.6 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.3 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
