Week 13 DVOA: Eagles Defense Keeps Getting Better

The Detroit Lions remain on top of the DVOA table after Week 13, dropping a little bit with a close win over Chicago. Baltimore stays second and Buffalo third, with Philadelphia moving up to fourth. At this point in the season, the main DVOA ratings don’t change much from week to week because we’ve got a 12-game sample for each team. The weighted ratings change a little more. There, the Eagles are up to third and moved closer to the Ravens with their victory on Sunday.

The Vikings dropped down to sixth, with the Packers fifth. This week’s game between the Packers and Lions on Thursday night is very important for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Right now, our playoff odds simulation gives the top seed to the Lions 73% of the time, but that drops to 34% if the Lions fall to the Packers at home on Thursday.

The Arizona Cardinals move up four spots to No. 7 despite losing to the Vikings, 23-22. This is in part because the ratings are very close for the teams ranked between 14th (Pittsburgh, 9.9%) and seventh (Arizona, 13.9%). In the middle of that pack, you’ll find the 11-1 Kansas City Chiefs. Their low ranking may not be too surprising given that they won on Friday in the dumbest way possible, with the Raiders botching a snap on a play where the Chiefs just stood there and watched the Raiders blow the game on their own. The Chiefs are now down to 12th in DVOA despite having the best record in the AFC. They’re even lower in weighted DVOA, ranking 14th.

Week Full of Reverse PGWE

A lot of the teams may be moving up and down this week in unexpected ways, because it was a week full of close games with a lot of “reverse PGWE” games where the Post-Game Win Expectancy formula suggests that the team that played better actually lost the game:

• Chargers had 3.4% PGWE against the Falcons
• Seahawks had 10.9% PGWE against the Jets
• Chiefs had 15.0% PGWE against the Raiders
• Vikings had 40.9% PGWE against the Cardinals
• Colts had 42.7% PGWE against the Patriots

The Ravens-Eagles and Browns-Broncos games also came out very close in PGWE, although in both cases the team with the higher PGWE won the game.

Historical Tables

Here’s a look at some of the tables that we’ve been tracking each week.

First, the Lions are now seventh all-time in DVOA through 12 games, essentially tied with the 2004 Eagles:

As you probably would expect, the Baltimore Ravens are now the No. 1 8-5 team in DVOA history. Five teams since 1979 have gone on from 8-5 to win the Super Bowl, although they were not the top teams by DVOA. Those five teams with their DVOA and ranking at 8-5 were:

• 2023 Chiefs, 24.5% DVOA (3)
• 1988 49ers, 23.0% DVOA (3)
• 2010 Packers, 17.0% DVOA (7)
• 2005 Steelers, 16.3% DVOA (7)
• 2001 Patriots, 6.7% DVOA (13)

The Ravens offense still ranks among the top offenses in DVOA history; they did better against the Eagles than you might think, plus they get the opponent adjustment since the Eagles defense is very good:

Finally, the Chiefs are not the worst 11-1 team by DVOA, but they’re close. They actually are the worst 11-1 team by point differential, but they do better in DVOA because they’ve played a harder schedule this season.

Weeks 1-6 vs. Weeks 7-13

The most impressive thing about the Philadelphia Eagles is how well their defense has played over the last couple of months. Through Week 6, the Eagles had 6.7% defensive DVOA which ranked 25th in the NFL. Since Week 7, the Eagles are easily the best defense in the NFL with -31.6% DVOA.

I thought it would be good to take a look at which other units have excelled over the last few games. I split the whole league by Weeks 1-6 and Weeks 7-13 and here are the biggest improvements on offense and defense. Did you realize Seattle’s offense was struggling so much in recent weeks? I’m guessing you did not.

Biggest Offensive Improvements:

• Miami from -33.6% (31) to 5.4% (13)
• Cleveland from -43.2% (32) to -10.3% (23)
• Los Angeles Chargers from -8.4% (22) to 9.6% (10)
• Denver from -13.7% (26) to 3.3% (14)
• Arizona from 2.7% (13) to 17.1% (4)

Biggest Offensive Declines:

• Seattle from 9.1% (10) to -18.3% (32)
• Atlanta from 14.8% (7) to -2.4% (19)
• Indianapolis from 2.1% (14) to -14.8% (26)
• San Francisco from 17.3% (5) to 1.3% (17)

Biggest Defensive Improvements:

• Philadelphia from 6.7% (25) to -31.6% (1)
• Jacksonville from 26.1% (32) to 11.1% (25)
• Seattle from 2.7% (19) to -10.3% (6)
• Miami from 10.6% (28) to -1.9% (12)
• Arizona from 1.8% (17) to -9.2% (7)

Biggest Defensive Declines:

• Minnesota from -36.9% (1) to -3.4% (10)
• Tampa Bay from -8.4% (11) to 16.6% (29)
• Chicago from -10.0% (8) to 13.4% (28)
• Kansas City from -15.0% (4) to 8.3% (24)
• New Orleans from -2.7% (15) to 19.0% (32)

Full DVOA Table Through Week 13

These are the FTN DVOA and DAVE ratings through 13 weeks of 2024. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.