Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandon Aiyuk from EV Insight

Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-148/+108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-148) after it opened @ 64.5 (-119).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
In this game, Brandon Aiyuk is expected by the projection model to finish in the 81st percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.3 targets.
Brandon Aiyuk has accrued many more air yards this year (99.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more prominently featured in his team’s pass attack.
Brandon Aiyuk has totaled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (87.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).

Cons

With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the 49ers to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (only 53.5 per game on average).
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards