Week 11 Game-by-Game DFS Breakdown

Welcome to the game-by-game DFS breakdown for NFL Week 11. In this write-up, I’ll walk you through the players, stacks, one-offs, etc., that I’ll be targeting weekly in DFS. My aim here is that you can apply this encyclopedia of stats and my word vomit to a variety of sites and contests with everything from cash to your GPP entries.

With plenty of words ahead to peruse, let’s dive into this week’s action. 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills

BUF -7, O/U 50

Pace and playcalling

This is a game of push and pull. The Bills fast paced (fifth in neutral-script pace) pass heavy (first in neutral passing rate, 67.8%) attack will push the Colts along. Indy will attempt to pull down the play volume ranking 27th in neutral situation pace with their run-balanced approach (15th in neutral passing rate, 58.0%). 

Injuries

Indianapolis

• Darius Leonard (LB) – (Ankle/Hand – DNP / LP / ) – Status: Questionable 
• Xavier Rhodes (CB) – (Calf – LP / LP / FP) – Status: No Injury Designation

Buffalo

• Spencer Brown (OL) – COVID-19 List
• Star Lotulelei (DL) – COVID-19 List
• Cole Beasley (WR) – (Ribs – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation
• Tremaine Edmunds (LB) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Colts

The Colts DFS options are slim pickings against a defense of this caliber. The Bills are first in total defensive DVOA while ranking first against the pass and third against the run. They are at the top of the heap against quarterbacks (10.6) and wide receivers (14.2), allowing the lowest fantasy points per game marks in the NFL to both positions. They gave up only three receiving touchdowns to wide receivers all season. Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback to surpass 260 passing yards (272 yards), and he needed 54 attempts (5.0 yards per attempt) to do so. A.J. Brown (91 receiving yards) and Corey Davis (93 receiving yards) are the only top wideouts to surpass 90 yards receiving against this secondary all season, and neither got into the end zone. Even if Michael Pittman hits this threshold, he’s likely not getting you there at his price tag (WR16 $6,100 DraftKings, WR15 $6,900 FanDuel, SuperDraft 1.4x) unless he scores, and that’s a tough bet to make this week. 

The Bills look the part on paper as a scary run defense to target in DFS, but there needs to be some context like I’ve mentioned in previous weeks. They have played only two teams with decent run-blocking offensive lines. Only Kansas City (12th) and Jacksonville (fifth) rank higher than 22nd in adjusted line yards. The rushers in those games are nothing to write home about either. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (MCL sprain) left due to injury, and Carlos Hyde got the start that week trudging along to 3.1 yards per carry. So yes, the Bills have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards (754) and are sixth in red-zone rushing defense, but look at who they have played. The Colts offensive line lives in another stratosphere, ranking eighth, second and first in adjusted line yards, second-level and open field yards. Derrick Henry and his explosiveness exposed the Bills’ run defense flaws with 143 rushing yards and three scores. Jonathan Taylor can do the same this week. Since Week 4, Taylor has been averaging 20 touches and 142.7 total yards per game. He has three or more receptions and 100 rushing yards or more in five of his last seven games. Taylor is second in breakaway runs and first in evaded tackles. He can break the slate with his big-play ability, so he’s a player I want to still mix in mini-correlations with Sanders around other main stacks. 

Bills

Josh Allen can have himself a day against one of the NFL’s most pass-funnel defenses. The Colts have allowed 7.6 yards per attempt (10th-highest) and the most passing touchdowns in the NFL (23). Allen’s skill set and the offensive design by Brain Daboll sets up nicely to dismantle this secondary. The Colts have shown weaknesses against play-action passing and the deep ball this season, which are two things that are right in Allen’s wheelhouse. Indy has given up 8.8 yards per attempt and a 69.8% completion rate to play-action passes. Both are the 12th highest in the NFL. Allen is ninth in play-action passer rating (114.5) with the second-most play-action passing touchdowns (eight) per FTN Data. The only quarterback with more play-action passing scores is Patrick Mahomes. Last week Daboll ramped up play-action to get Allen going, utilizing it on 58.1% (full season 32.6%) of their passing volume. The Colts have allowed the fifth-highest deep completion rate (48.6%) and deep passer rating (105.9), a deadly sin against Allen. He has the fourth-highest deep completion rate and deep passing attempts this season. Allen has been the QB4 in fantasy scoring in five weeks so far this season. Welcome to the sixth. 

The Bills backfield is an easy fade this week. The Colts are second in rush defense DVOA and eighth best in the red zone against the run. They have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing rushers and the lowest rushing touchdown mark (four). Big runs are non-existent against this team as they have surrendered the 10th-lowest gash rate per FTN Data. 

Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders are the two primary pass catchers to consider stacking with Allen that will be utilized on play-action passing and downfield throws. Per FTN Data, Diggs leads the team with 296 play-action receiving yards, followed by Sanders with 232 yards. Sanders leads the way in aDOT (18.1 yards), but Diggs is immediately behind him with 18.0. Sanders also leads the team with three play-action receiving touchdowns. Diggs leads the team with a 25% target share and 27% of the red-zone targets. Sanders has been the team’s deep threat sitting in second in air yard share (31%) and deep targets (16) behind only Diggs (17 deep targets). Sanders has seen a 15% target share this season.

**Update: Xavier Rhodes is in this week. Matchups below are updated to reflect.**

Xavier Rhodes will play the entire game as the RCB with either T.J. Carrie or Rock Ya-Sin playing LCB. The Colts play exclusive sides with their corners. Diggs (78% out wide) and Sanders (79% outside) will run most of their routes from the perimeter. These alignments have the largest bearing on Sanders, who will run nearly half of his routes as the LWR while Diggs moves all over the formation. Sanders will see Rhodes for half the game. Rhodes is allowing a 70.3% catch rate and 111.0 passer rating. Ya-Sin has given up a 62.1% catch rate and 102.9 passer rating. If Carrie draws the start, he has also been a plus matchup for receivers permitting a 64.3% catch rate and 106.5 passer rating. 

**Update: Cole Beasley is in, so that makes Beasley and Davis nothing more than MME targets.**

We need to monitor Cole Beasley’s practice reports after he played a season-low 16% of snaps. Beasley has been dealing with a rib issue. I’ll revisit his situation after we have more info on his injury designation. Gabriel Davis played a season-high in snaps last week (52%), finishing third among the wide receivers in routes with 12 (38.7% of Allen’s dropbacks). Davis ran 535 of his routes on the outside. Davis only drew three targets, but two of them were downfield. Davis is third on the team in deep targets (five). He is only an MME or large-field onslaught lineup play with his low route rate and high-volatility usage. 

Dawson Knox was back to his usual playing time (84% of snaps, route on 74.1% of dropbacks). Despite only seeing one target his usage was exactly what we had come to expect previously. Before injury (Weeks 1-5) he saw a 14.8% target share and seven red-zone targets. The Colts are a fantasy friendly matchup for the tight end position ranking 27th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). Indy has allowed 60 receptions (second-most), 611 receiving yards (sixth most), and six receiving touchdowns (third most) to tight ends. Stacking Allen with Knox over Sanders is viable, but if rostering Knox this week it’s more likely in a Bills onslaught or in a mini correlation stack with Jonathan Taylor. If Beasley misses this game for any reason Knox would get the biggest bump out of the Bills’ pass catchers. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Jonathan Taylor
GPP only: Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox

Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears

BAL -5, O/U 45

Pace and playcalling

The Ravens won’t surprise anyone by ranking 30th and 25th (52.9%) in neutral pace and passing percentage. What is surprising is what Chicago has done since Week 8. Since that time, the Bears have been 17th in neutral pace. Yes, I know this doesn’t sound monumental, but for a team that had been bottom five in pace with Justin Fields under center, it’s a massive shift. What has also climbed in a small sample is the passing rate. Since Week 8, you wouldn’t raise an eyebrow as the Bears are 28th (48.4%) in neutral passing rate, but against the Steelers, Matt Nagy called passing plays on 60.8% of their snaps when the score was close. In Week 11, that was the 11th highest clip, and if you zoom out to the entire season, that would rank ninth. Yes, again, this sample size is incredibly small, but if the Bears are changing up the diagram, I want to be ahead of the curve. I don’t want to look back on Week 11 and say, “it’s a one-game sample, so of course I didn’t buy into it,” with extreme regret. 

Injuries

Baltimore

• Marquise Brown (WR) – (Thigh – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Latavius Murray (RB) – (Ankle – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Jimmy Smith (CB) – (Hip – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Brandon William (DT) – (Shoulder – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Tavon Young (CB) – (Foot – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Anthony Averett (CB) – (Thigh – / – / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Chicago

• Akiem Hicks (DL) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Eddie Jackson (DB) – (Hamstring – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Danny Trevathan (LB) – IR
• Khalil Mack (LB) – IR
• Allen Robinson (WR) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful

Ravens

The Bears’ fraudulent secondary has plummeted from the heavens and now ranks 19th in pass defense DVOA. Over the last four games, yes, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have ripped them apart with efficient outings, but crusty Ben Roethlisberger and Jimmy Garoppolo also turned in solid games. These four quarterbacks completed 70.0% of their passes with 8.7 yards per attempt and a combined 121.7 passer rating. This season, Chicago has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt (seventh highest) and 16 passing touchdowns (10th most). Their biggest struggle has been against the deep ball, ranking 29th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) with the fourth-highest deep-ball passer rating (112.0) against. Now enter Lamar Jackson, third in deep attempts (46), with the ninth-most deep passing yards (529). The rushing upside is a known commodity with 50 or more rushing yards in seven of nine games with three weeks over the century mark. Jackson is due some passing touchdown regression with only two games with multiple passing scores and a 4.5% passing touchdown rate. Now, keep in mind in those two games, he threw for three and four touchdowns. That type of nuclear upside could happen this week.

We’ll have to monitor Latavius Murray’s health this week. With the Ravens releasing Le’Veon Bell and their disdain for Ty’Son Williams, Devonta Freeman could be the lone back this week. The matchup is above average with the Bears allowing 1,105 rushing yards (14th) and nine scores (13th). They also rank 27th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards and open-field yards allowed. The problem for Freeman is the big play ability is gone and the volume isn’t large enough to compensate. Among 60 running backs with 40 or more rushing attempts, Freeman is 49th in yards after contact per attempt (2.42) immediately behind Kenneth Gainwell and Carlos Hyde. Over this last two games he’s averaged 58% snaps played, but he’s only seen 14 touches with 70.5 total yards per game. Over his last four games he’s only seen six red-zone touches. 

**Update: Monitor Marquise Brown’s status for Sunday. If he is a surprise inactive I’ll bump up my exposure to Bateman and Sammy Watkins who will be the starters in two wide sets. One of them could be the sacrificial lamb to Jaylon Johnson, but the other will eat against these terrible corners.**

Since Rashod Bateman’s debut (Week 6), Marquise Brown has remained the leader of this passing attack with a 28.5% target share and 34.5% of the team’s air yards. Brown is the single stack must-have with Jackson this week, and he’s a viable one-off. He leads the NFL in deep targets (22), facing one of the league’s worst teams at defending downfield passing. Brown will run about 52% of his routes against Kindle Vildor, who has been a corner to circle on your DFS bingo card. Vildor is allowing a 68.6% catch rate and 145.9 passer rating. 

Bateman is not on the exposure list this week. Since ascending to the starter’s role, he’s had a 19.2% target share with two red-zone targets. In Sammy Watkins’ first game back with Bateman active, Bateman was still second among the Ravens’ wideouts in routes run (64% of dropbacks). He’ll have a tough corner matchup running about 63% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson. Johnson is the only player to worry about in this secondary, allowing a 53.1% catch rate and 82.8 passer rating. 

Mark Andrews is also in a tough spot this week. The Bears are eighth in DVOA against the tight end position allowing only 31 receptions and 269 receiving yards, which are both bottom-two in the NFL. Andrews has seen a 20.7% target share with Bateman active and a 27% red zone target share on the season. With two of Jackson’s three main weapons facing uphill battles, he could lean on Brown even more this week. 

If you’re running multiple Jackson teams in MME, a player to sprinkle on one of those lineups is Devin Duvernay. Last week Duvernay ran the third-most routes among wide receivers, with about 84% coming via the slot. Duvernay has not seen more than five targets in any game this season. The matchup is impeccable against Duke Shelley, who gives up a 78.0% catch rate and 106.2 passer rating. 

Bears

Justin Fields is in the discussion for large-field GPP targets. He has shown flashes of immense upside in his last two games as the QB10 and QB5 in fantasy scoring, completing 65.9% of his passes. Fields will have to contend with the Ravens’ pass rush this week. Baltimore has the highest pressure rate (28.8%) and the third-highest blitz rate (33.2%). Fields has seen pressure at the 10th-highest rate (25%) this year. When he’s been blitzed, he’s actually performed better comparatively. He has the 13th highest completion rate difference between non-blitz and blitz situations, with his completion percentage climbing by 4.5%. That said, he is still 24th in blitz completion rate (64.5%) and 27th in blitz passer rating. If (and I know it’s a big if) Fields can stay clean or use his mobility to buy time, there is a path to a huge ceiling. 

The Ravens are fifth in passing yards and fourth in yards per attempt allowed, ranking 24th in pass defense DVOA. They are allowing 18.9 fantasy points per game (10th highest) to opposing quarterbacks. They have especially been beatable on deep passing allowing the seventh-most deep passing yards and the third-highest deep passer rating. Fields has aggressively thrown deep at the third-highest rate (16.0%) among quarterbacks with 50 or passing attempts. He has the sixth-lowest deep completion rate (30%) on the season, but as he’s found his groove, the deep accuracy is showing up more and more. Since Week 7 among 35 quarterbacks with five or more deep attempts (Fields 15, sixth most), he is 13th in deep adjusted completion rate (46.7%) per PFF. Add on top the Ravens are 30th in explosive run rate allowed and now face a quarterback with eight rushing attempts and 57.3 rushing yards per game since Week 6. 

If there were any questions around David Montgomery reassuming his workhorse role, they should be silenced now. He saw all the red zone and passing-game work while playing 85% of the snaps in his first game back from injury. 

Week 9

Montgomery is only game-stack viable this week. Montgomery will see 15-20 touches against a run defense that has given up big plays on the ground and can be had by backs in the passing game. Baltimore is third in adjusted line yards and second in stuff rate allowed, but that’s only half the story. The Ravens are also 31st in open-field yards and allow the fourth-highest gash rate (14.1%). The biggest question is whether the Bears’ offensive line can spring him, and whether Montgomery has enough juice to break a few long runs. Chicago is 17th and 13th in second-level and open-field yards. Montgomery is only 22nd in breakaway run rate and 56th in yards created per touch. The Ravens are 31st in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against pass-catching running backs allowing the seventh-most receiving yards (493). The problem for Montgomery is that while he’s running the routes, the targets haven’t followed with only two games this year with at least four targets. 

**Update: Robinson’s doubtfulness obviously bumps up Mooney, but the consensus will likely not give the same bump to Kmet. Kmet is the player I will add more exposure to over Mooney, especially if Mooney becomes chalky.**

The only passing-game options to discuss here are Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. Since Week 6, Mooney and Kmet have taken a slight lead in the pass game hierarchy with 25.5% and 22.2% target shares (Robinson, 19.2%). Over that span, Kmet leads the trio with five red-zone targets, followed by Mooney with two (Robinson, one). Robinson is still the leading deep threat with nine deep targets (Mooney six, Kmet three) over their last four games. Robinson was banged up in their last game, so we must watch his status coming out of the bye. 

If the Ravens revert to earlier season corner alignments, Mooney could see Marlon Humphrey for most of the game. Mooney spends about 37% of snaps as the RWR while also rolling into the slot on about 34% of his snaps. Humphrey has played about 43% of his snaps at LCB, with a large majority of his work in the slot as well. Humphrey is allowing a 52.8% catch rate and 100.0 passer rating. Robinson will work the opposite side of the field if he plays (36% LWR) while spending about 36% of his snaps in the slot. That will place Robinson against Anthony Averett and Tavon Young in the slot. Averett is giving up a 56.9% catch rate and 80.4 passer rating. Young has been pliable inside, permitting a 71.9% catch rate and 86.7 passer rating. Picking between these two might be easy if Robinson is banged up or out, but I lean on Mooney regardless. The target share has slowly moved in his favor, and he has passed the eye test rapport with Fields. 

Kmet makes for a cheap single-stack option. You can also play him in a game stack or in a double stack with Fields. The threshold for a DFS viable tight end weekly is a low bar. With his strong target share, red zone usage, and 77.7% route run per dropback, Kmet is a solid play. Baltimore has allowed 652 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns to tight ends, which are both sixth highest. Kmet is also a cheap runback option for any Jackson stack. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Cole Kmet
GPP only: Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney

Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns

CLE -11, O/U 44

Pace and playcalling

The Lions are third in negative-script play volume, so to see them trail early wouldn’t be shocking. When they are behind, they are fifth in pace and passing rate (76.5%). The Browns will play slow as usual (29th, neutral pace) and lean on their run game (fourth in neutral rushing rate, 47.6%) in neutral and positive game scripts (12th in positive-script rushing percentage, 57.0%). 

Injuries

Detroit

• Taylor Decker (OL) – (Elbow – / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable 
• Trey Flowers (LB) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Jared Goff (QB) – (Oblique – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful
• Jamaal Williams (RB) – (Thigh – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Cleveland

• A.J. Green (CB) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Troy Hill (CB) – (Neck – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR) – (Groin – LP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Anthony Schwartz (WR) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Lions

Jared Goff is dealing with an oblique strain and is not a sure thing to suit up this week. Even a fully healthy Goff isn’t a good DFS option. If Tim Boyle makes the start, this offense begins circling the drain as a full fade. 

**Update: With Tim Boyle looking likely to start, I’m close to full fading the Lions. Swift’s workload will also decline a tad with Jamaal Williams back, so the usage we saw last week likely doesn’t repeat in Week 11.**

D’Andre Swift is in play despite the tough matchup with the type of role he saw in Week 10. Swift played 93% of the snaps for Detroit with 36 touches (33 carries) and 135 total yards. He ran a route on 86.2% of Goff’s dropbacks. Cleveland is a stout run defense, but there are paths to him paying off on his price tag (RB9 $7,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel). The Browns are ninth in stuff rate and have the sixth-lowest gash rate allowed. If Swift is getting this type of volume on the ground, it matters little, and he can get there behind a Lions’ offensive line that’s 12th in yards before contact per attempt. Cleveland is softer inside the 20, ranking 20th in red zone rush defense, allowing the eighth-most scores on the ground (ten). Swift is a game script-independent volume monster that also faces a defense 23rd in DVOA against pass-catching backs. 

T.J. Hockenson has been a volatile DFS option weekly despite his 19.6% target share. Last week with one target and goose eggs across the board in the box score, he reminded people of that wide range of outcomes. This year, he has four games with 66 or more receiving yards while also finishing with less than 25 receiving yards three times. To tight ends, the Browns have allowed 40 receptions and 405 receiving yards (22nd in both categories). 

Browns

Baker Mayfield isn’t in play this week despite the wondrous match up with Detroit’s secondary. The Lions are 28th in pass-defense DVOA, allowing the most yards per attempt (8.5) in the league and 16 passing touchdowns (10th). Mayfield is banged up and the Browns are determined to protect him by running the ball as much as possible. He hasn’t surpassed 240 yards passing since Week 5 while averaging only 25.3 passing attempts in that span. We can look to this Browns offense for one-offs or mini correlation partners with Swift. 

Nick Chubb’s in the GPP pool against this run defense. In Weeks 8-9, with Chubb operating as the lead back without Kareem Hunt, he averaged 16.5 touches and 116 total yards per game. He ran a route on only 37.2% of Mayfield’s dropbacks and split work in the red zone with D’Ernest Johnson. The Browns refuse to give as prominent a role as Johnson has received when he’s been out. Yes, the entire depth chart was decimated by COVID-19 in Week 10, even in Week 7 when he was the lead he ran a route on 44.4% of Case Keenum’s dropbacks and he saw all the work in the red zone. 

The Lions are a smash matchup for Chubb. Detroit has allowed 1,210 (third-most) rushing yards and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. The path to an easy ceiling is here as they are also 27th in red zone rushing defense and 30th in DVOA against pass-catching backs. 

Weeks 8-9

Despite his 21% target share without Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry isn’t rosterable in DFS. With only five targets per game without Beckham, he isn’t receiving the type of volume to do anything with his 4.0 aDOT. Landry has not logged at least 80 receiving yards in any game this season. Donovan Peoples-Jones makes the MME list again this week. Without Beckham, he has been the only other full-time receiver besides Landry. Over the last two weeks, he has a 19.5-yard aDOT and leads the team with three deep targets. The Lions are 32nd in DVOA against deep passing. Peoples-Jones will run about 78% of his routes on the perimeter against Jerry Jacobs and Amani Oruwariye. Jacobs is conceding a 64% catch rate and 106.9 passer rating. Oruwariye has a 70.3% catch rate and 84.1 passer rating. 

Looking at the Browns’ tight end usage weekly gives me a migraine. Austin Hooper and David Njoku as splitting routes and red zone looks in a low volume passing attack. I have not rostered a Browns’ tight end in DFS this year so far, and I don’t plan on starting to do so this week. The Lions have allowed only 38 receptions (25th) and 462 receiving yards (16th) to the position. 

Weeks 7-10

DFS Plays

Core plays: Nick Chubb
GPP only: D’Andre Swift, Donovan Peoples-Jones

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

TEN -10, O/U 44.5

Pace and playcalling

This game will be average to below average in pace. Houston is 19th in neutral pace, and the Titans are still attempting to operate the offense as if Derrick Henry is still in the backfield, ranking 25th since Week 9. Houston has passed the ball on 58.6% and 73.3% of their plays when the game has been close with Tyrod Taylor under center. If they get down early, the passing volume could be quite nice for the Texans. In Week 9 when trailing, they passed on 78.7% of their plays (fourth highest). Tennessee had a brief epiphany in Week 9 and looked more to the passing game without Henry, but that was short-lived as they are 23rd in passing rate in neutral scripts (52.3%) after two games without the Big Dawg.

Injuries

Houston

• No notable injury designations

Tennessee

• Nate Davis (OL) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Bud Dupree (LB) – (Abdomen – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Chris Jackson (CB) – (Foot – DNP / DNP / ) – Status: 
• Jeremy McNichols (RB) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Rashaan Evans (LB) – (Ankle – LP / LP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Jackrabbit Jenkins (CB) – (Chest – / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Texans

The only Texan still worth discussing is Brandin Cooks, and even he is only a large-field GPP play. Tyrod Taylor will throw passes against a defense ranked ninth in DVOA, allowing the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate (72.3%). Tennessee has also allowed only 7.1 yards per attempt (20th). They have struggled to allow passing touchdowns (18, fifth most) and against deep passing. The Titans have given up the second-most deep passing yards, and they are third in deep passing touchdowns allowed. 

Among quarterbacks with 25 or more attempts, Taylor is 21st in deep passing rate with the eighth-lowest deep completion rate (30%). The efficiency likely won’t be there, but Cooks can make up this with raw volume. Cooks is fourth among receivers in target share (30.4%) and 10th in targets (83) at the position. He’s averaging 9.3 targets, 6.3 receptions and 71.2 receiving yards per game. Rostering Cooks is absorbing 53% (16 deep targets) of the team’s deep passing volume. Kristian Fulton is the corner Cooks should have to worry about, allowing only a 37.9% catch rate and 69.8 passer rating. The promising wrinkle for Cooks is Fulton exclusively plays one side (RCB) on about 68% of his snaps. Cooks moves all over the formation playing LWR on average about 38% of his snaps, so he’ll see more Elijah Molden and Jackrabbit Jenkins this week than Fulton. Molden is allowing a 68.4% catch rate and 112.7 passer rating. Jenkins has been similarly beatable with a 69.5% catch rate, and 114.6 passer rating surrendered. 

Titans

My GPP flame has been extinguished for Ryan Tannehill after a brief glimmer of hope that the team was increasing its passing rates to compensate for the loss of Derrick Henry. Tannehill has not shown the ceiling this year with no 25-point fantasy games and only two weeks above 20. This is a good matchup to go back to A.J. Brown though. The Texans are allowing a 76.6% adjusted completion rate (10th highest) and 8.1 yards per attempt (third). Ryan Tannehill is eighth in play-action dropbacks and now faces a team allowing the sixth-highest play-action passing touchdown rate (8.0%) and a 114.9 passer rating (10th highest) on play-action throws. 

Weeks 9-10

The Titans backfield is a messy three-way committee. Each back has played between 21-45% of the snaps weekly splitting up the red zone and early down work. If McNichols were to miss (concussion) then it would help narrow the possibilities, but it’’ still be a coinflip that likely lands more favorably for Peterson as sad as that is to say. The Texans are a dream matchup on the ground allowing the second-most rushing yards (1,232) and rushing touchdowns (15). This putrid run defense is also fifth in gash rate (13.4%) and giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game (21.4) to running backs. 

Last week’s stinker game against New Orleans needs to be taken with a grain of salt. In the three games A.J. Brown has played without Julio Jones, he’s seen a 26% target share and 40.3% of the team’s air yards. Brown will be integral in the Titan’s attack as he leads the team in play-action targets (28) and play-action receiving yards (274) per FTN Data. Brown will run about 61% of his routes on the perimeter against Desmond King and Terrance Mitchell. King is allowing a 79.5% catch rate and 109.9 passer rating. Mitchell has been burnable with a 59.1% catch rate surrendered with a 101.2 passer rating. 

Marcus Johnson has played between 63-75% of the snaps in the three games that Jones has missed this season. He has seen a 20.6% target share in those games which sounds more glamorous that it is in a run-first offense because it amounts to 5.3 targets per game. Johnson is nothing more than an MME play, but even there it feels like point chasing after this 100-yard outing last week. Johnson will operate on the outside on about 82% of his snaps against King and Mitchell. Johnson only has a 4% red-zone target share this year. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: N/A
GPP only: Brandin Cooks, A.J. Brown

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

GB -2, O/U 47.5

Pace and playcalling

Green Bay is a lead weight with pace, sitting as the league’s slowest team in neutral scripts, which hurts the Vikings, who are fourth. Both teams are average to above-average, ranking 11th (59.5%, MIN) and 14th (58.0%, GB) in passing rates. The pace will hurt the play volume for both teams. 

Injuries

Green Bay

• David Bakhtiari (OL) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Aaron Jones (RB) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Rashan Gary (LB) – (Elbow – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Allen Lazard (WR) – (Shoulder – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful

Minnesota

• Bashaud Breeland (CB) – (Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Wyatt Davis (G) – (Ankle – / LP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Packers

Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback I’ve rarely played in DFS this season. This week looks like another checkmark in the avoid column. The Vikings started the year as a pass defense to target but have since improved and are sixth in pass defense DVOA. They allow the sixth-lowest adjusted completion rate (71.1%) and the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns (13). Rodgers remains pricey (QB6 $7,000 DraftKings, QB7 $7,700 FanDuel) despite only throwing for 300-plus yards once this season. He has multiple touchdown passes in seven of his last eight games, but that has only helped band-aid his low passing volume and yardage. Rodgers has had productive weeks but no smash weeks this year. 

AJ Dillon will be chalky this week, but for very good reason. With Aaron Jones out and only Patrick Taylor behind him, he’s set to slide into a bell-cow workload. I wasn’t high on him as a prospect coming out, but he’s playing extremely well this season when he’s been given opportunities. Among rushers with 50 or more attempts, he’s eighth in yards after contact per attempt. He’s also 13th in yards created per touch among running backs. The Vikings have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards (1,175) and third-most yards per attempt (4.7). Gaining positive yardage on each carry should be no issue for Dillon against a run defense ranked 30th in stuff rate. He’s in line for 20-25 touches this week with possibly all the pass game work for a team that’s 13th in target share to the running back position. 

Davante Adams is in play on any slate, so I know I’m not breaking news by saying that. I like his matchups this week more than last. Adams remains third in target share (30%) and receiving yardage share (35%). He is also eighth in red-zone targets (13) among wide receivers. He’ll run about 68% of his routes on the perimeter against Cameron Dantzler and Bashaud Breeland. Dantzler has been slipping some since Week 6, allowing a 66.7% catch rate and 100.7 passer rating. Over the same span, Breeland has improved, only giving up a 60% catch rate and 71.3 passer rating. Breeland has been putrid overall this year, though (69.1% catch rate, 115.3 passer rating), so some regression was bound to hit. Both corners aren’t a concern for a talent like Adams. 

Again, the rule is to play Marquez Valdes-Scantling against teams that struggle with deep passing. Minnesota is not one of those teams, ranking 10th in DVOA against downfield passing and 26th in deep completion rate (33.3%) allowed. 

Vikings

Kirk Cousins is set for a long day against a surprisingly stout Green Bay secondary. The Packers have yielded the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate (72.9%), second-lowest yards per attempt (6.3) and 15 passing touchdowns (15th). Cousins will have more ceiling games this season, but this doesn’t look like a spot for one. 

Dalvin Cook is in as a GPP play this week. Green Bay’s run defense has improved this season especially against big plays (second in open-field yards allowed). They have shown cracks in the pavement though to believe that Cook can still perform quite well here. The Packers are seventh in yards per attempt allowed (4.5) and have the fifth lowest stuff rate (41.5%). While they have limited big plays, they are still 30th and 17th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. Cook has been his usual slippery self, ranking sixth in missed tackles forced and first in breakaway run rate. Cook can also do damage through the air against a team that’s allowed 54 receptions (11th-most) and three receiving touchdowns (sixth-most) to running backs. He looks back to full health averaging 81% snaps, 23.5 touches and 120 total yards over the last two games. 

Despite the 49-point game total, this game feels gross and like one that could disappoint with the Packer’s slow pace and defensive prowess as the culprit. While Adam Thielen is still involved heavily around the goal line, Justin Jefferson has a slight nudge in target share, air yard share, and first-read share over Thielen. He gets the nod over Thielen for GPPs. He’ll run about 68% of his routes on the perimeter against Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes. Both have been tough, which is why I would only play Jefferson in a mini correlation. Douglas has allowed a 53.6% catch rate and 62.6 passer rating. Stokes has been playing lights out for a rookie, only giving up a 51.9% catch rate and 78.2 passer rating. 

Tyler Conklin is fine as an MME play with a 15% and a healthy 29% end zone target share and 19% red zone target share. The match-up is good, but I’m concerned with the game environment and can’t talk myself into bumping him up higher. The Packers are 23rd in DVOA against the position, allowing 546 receiving yards (11th) and four receiving scores (ninth most). 

DFS Plays

Core plays: AJ Dillon
GPP only: Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Conklin (MME)

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

MIA -3, O/U 44.5

Pace and playcalling

Our offensive efficiency tool has this game as the fastest in pace for Week 11. The Dolphins are first in neutral pace followed by the Jets at 11th. Both teams will look to their passing games to move the ball. Miami is third in neutral passing rate (65.3%) while New York is 10th (59.7%). 

Injuries

Miami

• No notable injuries

New York 

• Zach Wilson (QB) – (Knee – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Doubtful
• Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL) – (Toe – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa has smashed good quarterback matchups this season, averaging 26.4 DraftKings points (25.4, FanDuel) against Jacksonville and Atlanta. Tagovailoa gets another cakewalk matchup this week against the Jets. New York’s secondary is allowing a 77.5% adjusted completion rate (sixth highest) and 8.4 yards per attempt which is second to only Detroit. The Jets also stink at defending the deep ball with the 10th-highest deep completion rate and fifth-most deep passing yards allowed. Tagovailoa might have the seventh-lowest deep ball rate (among quarterbacks with 100 or more attempts), but he’s been surgical when he has gone long completing 50% (fourth highest) of his passes. Tagovailoa is criminally undervalued across all DFS sites (QB16 $5,500 DraftKings, QB18 $7,000 FanDuel, 1.55x SuperDraft) for the upside he possesses. 

Over the last four weeks, Myles Gaskin has gotten the volume, averaging 19.5 touches per game (58-72% snaps), but he’s been woefully inefficient with only 58.5 total yards per game. His offensive line has played poorly, ranking 31st in adjusted line yards and second-level yards, but Gaskin has done little to help himself. He’s outside the top 40 in evaded tackles, yards created per touch, and juke rate. The Jets offer a solid get-right spot, though. New York has been a running back wonderland permitting 1,206 rushing yards (fourth most), a 14.5% gash rate (second highest), and the most fantasy points per game (31.6). With the Jets’ woes through the air, his production shortcomings, and his high roster percentage, I’ll be underweight in GPPs, but with 15- to 20-touch volume and his popularity, he’s still fine for cash. Gaskin is currently the third-most popular running back play on DraftKings and FanDuel in our projections. 

In Tagovailoa’s four full games, the stacking options have been clear, as Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki stand out from the pile. Waddle has seen a 25.5% target share and 28.5% of the team’s air yards running 64% of his routes from the slot. Waddle can eat Michael Carter alive inside, who, over his last five games, is giving up a 77.3% catch rate and 112.3 passer rating. 

Gescki has seen a 14.2% target share while sitting second in first read share (17%), sitting behind only Waddle (25%). The same can be said for red-zone target share as he is nipping at Waddle’s heels (18% vs. 14%). Gesicki is a wide receiver, not a tight end lining up in the slot on about 66% of his snaps and outside at a 28.3% clip. When Gesicki isn’t in the slot against Carter, he’ll match up with Bryce Hall and Brandin Echols on the perimeter. Over their last five games, Hall has allowed a 70.4% catch rate, and 134.3 passer rating, and Echols has permitted a 64.3% catch rate and 107.0 passer rating. 

Jets

Joe Flacco gets the nod for New York under center, and while you can’t pay me to play him in DFS, this offense does offer some runback and mini correlation options. 

Michael Carter is a runback or mini correlation play only. Carter is still in line for 15-20 touches, but with Flacco under center there are plausible concerns. The massive target share with Mike White could drop some which would hurt considering Ty Johnson is cutting into his routes. Carter displayed last week in Tevin Coleman’s first game action since Week 5 that he’s still the primary guy on early downs and in the red zone. The Dolphins are a middle of the road matchup with its share of pros and cons. On the bright side they have the 13th-highest yards per contact per attempt and rushing touchdowns (nine) allowed. The downside is they are also the NFL’s third-best red zone rushing defense and own the eighth-highest stuff rate. 

Week 10

Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder are still the only full-time receivers for the Jets. Elijah Moore only ran a route on 51% of dropbacks last week with a 10.6% target share. Until those figures come up, he’s not rosterable. Davis has seen an 18.8% target share with 30.8% of the team’s air yards when on the field. He second on the team in deep targets (eight) while leading the way in end-zone target share (36%). He’ll run about 77% of his routes on the perimeter against Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Howard has played better over his last four games allowing a 51.9% catch rate and 74.0 passer rating. Jones has still been beatable giving up a 73.3% catch rate and 102.8 passer rating since Week 6. Davis is the type of receiver that both of these corners play up against. Howard and Jones have both had their struggles with speed receivers and prefer a receiver that they can press or get physical with. 

Crowder has seen a 16.8% target share when active while leading the team with a 24% red-zone target share. Crowder’s rapport with Flacco is notable here as they played four games together last season. In those four starts Crowder averaged 7.2 targets, 4.5 receptions, and 51.5 receiving yards per game with a 21.9% target share. Crowder has run 83% of his routes from the slot. Our old friend Justin Coleman is now the starting slot corner for the Dolphins and by looking at his stats this year the public would be led to think he is s shutdown corner allowing a 64.9 passer rating. Anyone that has read any previous writeups from me regarding receiver and cornerback matchups knows I love to pick on Coleman in DFS. In 2019-2020 Coleman allowed a 69.4% catch rate (157 targets) and 12 receiving touchdowns with passer ratings of 134.0 and 107.3. Crowder might be a nauseating play to press the button on, but the stars are aligning for a lightly rostered GPP smash week. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin (cash only)
GPP only: Jamison Crowder, Michael Carter

New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -2, O/U 43

Pace and playcalling

These two teams are moving in opposite directions — Philadelphia is slowing down and leaning on their ground game, while New Orleans is speeding up and taking to the air. Since Week 8, the Eagles are 22nd in neutral pace and first in neutral rushing rate (62.5%). With Trevor Siemian under center, they are eight in neutral pace and 14th in passing rate (58.3%). This week the Eagles’ run-heavy approach will be tested against one of the league’s best run-stopping defensive lines. 

Injuries

New Orleans

• Ty Montgomery (WR) – (Hand – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Taysom Hill (QB) – (Foot – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Terron Armstead (OL) – (Knee/Shoulder – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Ryan Ramczyk (OL) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Alvin Kamara (RB) – (Knee – LP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Philadelphia

• Dallas Goedert (TE) – (Concussion – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: No injury designation

Saints

Trevor Siemian isn’t a player we’ll ever look to for ceiling performances. Against a pass defense allowing the highest adjusted completion rate (81.9%) and 10th-most passing touchdowns (16), this offense should be able to move the ball well enough to support a few DFS options. 

Mark Ingram is back in the driver seat for the New Orleans rushing attack.  Last week Ingram played 85% of the snaps with 18 touches and 108 total yards. He saw a 20.5% (seven targets) target share running a route on 60% of dropbacks. This week’s matchup is tougher than it first appears on paper. The Eagles have allowed healthy production to running backs with 1,173 rushing yards (sixth most) and 11 rushing touchdowns (fifth most). They have also given up 68 receptions (third most) and 461 receiving yards (10th highest). The problem is they have gotten significantly better as the season has progressed. Since Week 5, they are bolstering the league’s third-best mark against explosive runs, and they are 11th in red zone rushing defense. Ingram can still get there on volume and pass game usage, but it’s not as sexy a play as it was in Week 10. Ingram stands out as more of a value on DraftKings (RB22, $5,500) and SuperDraft (1.45x) than FanDuel (RB16, $6,800). 

The standout pass-catcher to target this week from the Saints is Adam Trautman. With Siemian under center, he leads the team in target share (17%) and red-zone targets (four), running a route on 70% of dropbacks. The Eagles are a beautiful matchup for tight ends ranking 32nd in DVOA. Philadelphia is allowing the most receiving yards (773) and receiving touchdowns (eight) to tight ends. I’ll lean on volume and matchups in a low total game with a limited skill set quarterback, which leads us to Ingram and Trautman. Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway will further weeks in DFS to discuss them as plays, but I won’t be moving in their direction in Week 11. 

Eagles

The Eagles’ declining pace and passing rate is suffocating Jalen Hurts’ fantasy output. Since their clampdown in Week 8, Hurts is averaging 18 passing attempts, 147 passing yards and 15.4 fantasy points per game. The Saints could push the Eagles to throw more this week, but the outcome might be less than ideal. New Orleans is 13th in pass defense DVOA while also permitting a 73.8% adjusted completion rate and 13 passing touchdowns, ranking 20th. This secondary has given up the ninth-most deep passing yards (570), but they are also eighth best in deep passer rating allowed (79.2). Hurts has struggled with deep accuracy with the 10th-lowest mark among quarterbacks with 100 or more attempts. 

I’ll keep this short and sweet. Please repeat after me: “We don’t play running backs against the Saints.” New Orleans is top three in every adjusted line yard metric I care about. They have allowed the fewest rushing yards (656) and third-fewest rushing touchdowns (six) in the NFL. 

With New Orleans ranking fourth in DVOA against the tight end position, Dallas Goedert is off the DFS radar. DeVonta Smith is the only Eagle I have an interest in this week. Since Week 7, he has had a 28.2% target share with 43% of the team’s air yards. He’s fourth in the NFL in deep targets (20), so if Hurts does connect deep, it’s likely going to Smith. He’ll run about 84% of his routes on the perimeter against Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo. Lattimore has been unsteady, allowing a 56.6% catch rate and 120.2 passer rating. Adebo has also been inconsistent, conceding a 65.9% catch rate and 110.3 passer rating. The Saints have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (26.3) to opposing wide receivers. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: N/A
GPP only: Mark Ingram, Adam Trautman, DeVonta Smith

Washington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers

CAR -3, O/U 43

Pace and playcalling

This game will be one of the slower ones on the slate with Washington at 15th in neutral pace followed by Carolina ranking 23rd. These two teams will also lean on their ground games. Washington is 20th in neutral passing rate (56.3%) while the Panthers are 26th (52.8%). 

Injuries

Washington

• Kendall Fuller (CB) – (Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Ricky Seals-Jones (TE) – (Hip – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Curtis Samuel (WR) – (Groin – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Benjamin St.-Juste (CB) – (Concussion – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable

Carolina

• No notable injuries

Football Team

We aren’t looking to stack Taylor Heinicke against a pass defense that’s second in DVOA, 29th in yards per attempt allowed (6.4), and 21st in passing touchdowns allowed (13). We can, however, pick some runback options in this spot. 

Antonio Gibson walked out of the bye with the shin injury still lingering and limited practice tags still looming, but his volume last week was encouraging. Gibson played 63% of snaps with 26 total touches, 78 total yards, and two scores. The worry with Gibson in his role is perfectly highlighted by our usage by situation tool below. If the Football team falls behind, Gibson could get shelved, which is why he’s only a runback option in a game stack. 

Gibson does have an opportunity to make some noise in the rushing department against Carolina. Since Week 6, the Washington offensive line is sixth in yards per contact per attempt. Despite ranking sixth in stuff rate, this defense also allows the 10th-highest yards after contact per attempt and is ranked 26th in explosive run rate allowed. 

The options in the passing game are slim. Carolina is first in DVOA against pass-catching backs, so we can wave goodbye to J.D. McKissic this week. The tight end room is banged up, and the Panthers are third in DVOA against that position as well. Terry McLaurin will be in line for his usual truckload of volume as he’s sixth in target share (27%) and seventh in weighted opportunity, but the matchup is less than ideal. He’ll run about half of his routes against Donte Jackson, who allows a 63.8% catch rate and 73.4 passer rating in coverage. Essentially this week, it boils down to Gibson or McLaurin as a runback, and even then, it’s not a must. 

Panthers

Cam Newton is in a prime spot rejoice in his return to prominence in DFS this week. There are rumblings that he could split snaps with Phillip Walker, so if we hear this more heading into Sunday Newton isn’t playable in DFS. Washington is allowing the most fantasy points per game (23.5) to opposing quarterbacks. They rank 29th in DVOA, allowing the eighth-most passing yards (2,611) and second-most passing touchdowns (22). Their struggles have also extended to deep passing as they rank second in passer rating (123.8) and deep passing touchdowns (seven) allowed. Last season, on limited volume (31st in deep attempts), Newton proved he can still sling it downfield, ranking fourth deep completion rate (50%). I’ll get my Newton exposure on DraftKings (QB24, $5,100) and SuperDraft (1.45x), because FanDuel wasted no time pricing him up (QB9, $7,500). 

In the four games Christian McCaffrey has played and not left due to injury, he’s averaging an insane 25.2 touches and 147.7 total yards per game with a 23% target share. McCaffrey is always in play even when the matchup looks horrendous like this week. Washington is near the top in most run-centric defensive categories. They have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards, third-fewest yards after contact per attempt and the fourth-lowest gash rate. Even though they are 21st in DVOA to pass-catching running backs, that is mostly related to their league-leading seven receiving touchdowns they’ve allowed. They are 23rd in receiving yardage allowed to the position. McCaffrey can be played as a contrarian one-off or in a stack with Newton. 

DJ Moore is the other primary stacking option with Newton this week. I’m sorry, but despite his 19% target share and receiving score last week, Robby Anderson has already extinguished any hope that I had for him in DFS. Moore still led the way last week with a 22% target share and 29% of the team’s air yards. Despite Sam Darnold attempting to capsize DJ Moore SZN, he is still fifth in target share (28.1%) and sixth in weighted opportunity. Moore run about 81% of his routes on the perimeter against William Jackson and Kendall Fuller. Jackson hasn’t shadowed since Week 3, so there are zero concerns about that in this game. Jackson is allowing a 64.3% catch rate and 108.9 passer rating in his last three games. Fuller has also been beatable with a 71% catch rate and 87.4 passer rating since Week 5. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: N/A
GPP only: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Antonio Gibson

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

SF -6.5, O/U 45

Pace and playcalling

This game should be average for pace with the 49ers slowing things down at 18th in neutral pace. Jacksonville remains a fast-paced team (ninth in neutral script) despite being run-heavy (22nd in neutral passing rate, 55.3%). The 49ers remain run-centric with the third-highest rushing rate (47.8%) in close games. 

Injuries

San Francisco 

• JaMycal Hasty (RB) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Elijah Mitchell (RB) – (Finger – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful

Jacksonville

• James Robinson (RB) – (Heel/Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo has been playing better since his return, but like we saw last week, as soon as the 49ers get up the air comes out of the ball. While Jacksonville is 31st in pass defense DVOA, it’s impossible to play him when the head coach can pull the plug on the passing game at any moment. 

**Update:**

Jeff Wilson will become chalky as everyone is desperate for value with this slate. I don’t love this spot for Wilson though. Last week he played 32% of snaps with ten touches (28 rushing yards). He only ran five routes, but that is likely to climb with Hasty and Mitchell both likely out. Kyle Juszczyk could easily eat into his routes this week though. The Jaguars might be a dumpster fire of a team, but one of the few things they do well is defend the run. They have allowed the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt this year. Since Week 5 they are 15th in red zone rushing defense and have held opposing teams to the 11th lowest explosive run rate. Per FTN Data San Francisco utilized inside or outside zone runs on about 53% of their rushing plays. Jacksonville has held opposing zone runs to 3.9 yards per carry and 1.3 yards before contact per attempt.

The passing game is the most interesting part of this game with San Francisco. With George Kittle healthy and Brandon Aiyuk now garnering targets, this passing attack has become a coin flip for volume. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are pricey options, but we have seen full showings or glimpses of ceilings worth chasing in Kittle’s case. Samuel leads the team in deep targets (nine) while taking on a team that allows the third-highest deep completion rate (54.3%). Samuel could draw shadow coverage from Shaquill Griffin, who has followed the team’s top receiving option in each of the last three games. Outside of getting eviscerated by DK Metcalf, Griffin is allowing a 65.8% catch rate and 87.6 passer rating this season. 

If Samuel is shadowed, it could open the flood gates for Kittle to smash against a pass defense ranked 26th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against the tight end position. Jacksonville has allowed 543 receiving yards (12th-most) to tight ends. 

Jaguars

The Jaguars offense has neared full fade for me. Trevor Lawrence has been abysmal, and this offense has mustered only 33 total points over their last three games. Depending on his final injury designation, James Robinson might make my player list for MME or large-field tournaments. The 49ers are 27th in explosive run rate allowed. They are also ninth in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Robinson has stated he is definitely not 100% in interviews, but he played 59% snaps last week with 16 touches and 84 total yards. He ran a route on 45.2% of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks. The 49ers defense is fourth in DVOA against receiving backs, so while we want the pass catching upside from Robinson if he hits it’ll be because of what he has done on the ground this week. 

It’s impossible to trust any pass-catching options from a quarterback like Lawrence who has not eclipsed 240 passing yards or 4.7 yards per attempt since Week 6. Even their new alpha Dan Arnold isn’t rosterable against a 49ers’ defense that’s seventh in DVOA against the position. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: George Kittle, Jeff Wilson (cash)
GPP only: James Robinson, Deebo Samuel

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders

CIN -1, O/U 50.5

Pace and playcalling

At a glance, this game looks like it shouldn’t have a total this high, but the pace and passing rates in this game could lead to an offensive explosion. Since Week 7, the Bengals are seventh in neutral pace while also sporting the second-highest neutral passing rate (70.5%). Las Vegas is a similar story, ranking 12th and sixth (65.5%) in neutral pace and passing rate over their last three games. 

Injuries

Cincinnati 

• No notable injuries

Las Vegas

• No notable injuries

Bengals

Outside of his Week 9 dud, Joe Burrow has been the model of consistency, with multiple touchdowns passes in each of his prior eight games and 20 or more fantasy points in four of his last six games. Burrow takes on a pass defense ranked 22nd in DVOA, allowing the eighth-most passing touchdowns (17). The Raiders have been stout against deep passing (11th in DVOA), but they’ve been beaten by a thousand cuts underneath, ranking 30th against short passing. Burrow has the fifth-most short passing attempts (95) and ranks tenth in passer rating (107.8) on throws of 0-9 yards. 

Las Vegas has improved as a run defense as the season has moved along, while the Bengals have declined as a run-blocking unit. Since Week 6, Las Vegas has had the sixth-lowest explosive run rate allowed. The Raiders are 20th in yards after contact per attempt (2.3) and 16th in gash rate (10.2%) allowed. Since Week 6, the Bengals are the worst offensive line in yards before contact (0.71) generated. This all leads me away from Joe Mixon this week. 

Since Tee Higgins’ return (Week 5)

The stacking options with Joe Burrow are clear. Ja’Marr Chase is the primary, and if you want to double stack him, it’s with Tee Higgins tacked on. Since Higgins’ return, Chase has led the team with a 26.8% target share and a 39.4% air yard share. Higgins is right on his heels with a 24% target share and 33.6% air yard market share. Over their last five games, Higgins (22) leads the team in short-area targets, followed by Chase (20). Chase leads all wide receivers with nine endzone targets (52% market share). He also leads the team in red-zone target share (26%), followed closely by Higgins (23%). Chase (87%) and Higgins (78%) will run most of their routes on the perimeter against Casey Hayward and Brandon Facyson. Since Week 5, Hayward is allowing a 53.3% catch rate and 75.4 passer rating. Facyson is giving up a 60.7% catch rate and 107.9 passer rating over his last four games. 

Mixing in Tyler Boyd or C.J. Uzomah in large-field tournaments makes sense this week. Boyd has only seen a 14.4% target share since Higgins’ return. He’ll run out of the slot against Nate Hobbs, who is conceding an 88.2% catch rate and 102.9 passer rating over his last five games. Uzomah also only has a 9.4% target share and two red-zone targets over the same span, but the matchup is beautiful. The Raiders are 29th in DVOA against the tight end position giving up 655 receiving yards (second most) and six receiving touchdowns (third most). 

Raiders

Derek Carr isn’t in my GPP player list this week, but the Bengals do offer a few paths to pick apart this offense for run back options. Cincinnati is fourth in adjusted completion rate allowed (78.3%), but they have been stingy in the passing touchdown department (12, third fewest). Much like the Vegas secondary, Cincinnati’s aim in zone coverage is to keep everything in front of them ranking 24th in DVOA against short passing (14th vs. deep passing). 

Josh Jacobs is in play as a runback option on the Vegas side. Since Week 7 he has shown some juice that was eluding him earlier in the season. Over his last three games he has nine missed tackles forced on 26 attempts with 2.54 yards after contact per attempt. The Bengals have also fallen off a table in the run defense department outside of the red zone. Since Week 4 they are 25th in explosive run rate allowed. This dropoff has pushed them up to fourth in yards after contact per attempt and 11th in gash rate. Add in that since Week 6 the Raiders offensive line is 13th in yards before contact per attempt and Jacobs sneaks into the GPP conversation. 

Hunter Renfrow is my favorite runback from Las Vegas. Renfrow has a 21.1% target share from the slot this season. He is second in end-zone target share (29%) and tied for the team lead in red-zone target share (23%) with Darren Waller. He’ll line up against Mike Hilton, who allows an 80% catch rate and 109.4 passer rating. Renfrow has at least eight targets and seven receptions in each of his last three games. 

Darren Waller doesn’t make the exposures this week. The Bengals have allowed 37 receptions (26th) and 389 receiving yards (25th) to opposing tight ends. T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews averaged nine targets, 5.5 receptions, and 61 scoreless yards against this secondary. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow
GPP only: Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah

Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs

KC -2.5, O/U 56

Pace and playcalling

Per our offensive efficiency tool, this is the second-fastest projected pace game this week. The Cowboys are seventh in neutral pace, followed by Kansas City at 14th. The passing volume should be insane in this game. Dallas is tenth in neutral passing rate (61.3%) since Week 6. The Chiefs are a pass-happy bunch sitting at ninth (60.4%) in passing percentage in close games. 

Injuries

Dallas

• Amari Cooper (WR) – COVID-19 List
• Tyron Smith (OL) – (Ankle – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Kansas City

• Lucas Niang (OL) – (Ribs – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• L’Jarius Snead (CB) – (Knee – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Cowboys

The Chiefs have had a laundry list of pushover quarterbacks showing up at their doorstep in their last five games. After facing Taylor Heinicke, Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love and Derek Carr, Dak Prescott arrives to set the field on fire. The last quarterback the Chiefs played who is in Prescott’s area code is Josh Allen, who carved them up for 315 passing yards, 3 scores and 12.1 yards per attempt. Since Week 6 Prescott is averaging 40.3 pass attempts, 324.3 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. Over that span he has flown past 25 fantasy points twice. Kansas City is allowing a 76.5% adjusted completion rate (10th highest), 8.0 yards per attempt (fifth highest), and 18 passing touchdowns (fifth most). 

Over the last two games, Ezekiel Elliott has played 49-53% of snaps due to injury and a blowout. With Elliott practicing in full I expect him to return to his previous 60-75% snap share this week in a plumb match up. In his previous seven games, he averaged 19.8 touches and 99.9 total yards per game while dominating the red zone work with 24 opportunities (Tony Pollard, 12). Kansas City has been a good matchup to target for running backs for a few seasons. They have allowed 1,146 rushing yards (ninth most) and the 10th-highest gash rate (11.1%). Elliott’s 9.6% target share will come into play this week against a defense ranked 25th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against pass catching backs. The Chiefs have let running backs snag 63 passes (eighth most) for 538 receiving yards (fifth highest). Elliott is a core play. 

CeeDee Lamb is the top stacking option with Prescott. Lamb and Amari Cooper tangle back and forth for the team lead in first read share, end zone target share and red zone target share. Lamb and Cooper are also tied for the team lead in deep targets (15). The reason Lamb gets the nod over Cooper is the corner matchup. Last week with Michael Gallup back in the lineup, he moved back into the slot (69% slot). Lamb will line up opposite L’Jarius Sneed for most of the game, the best corner to target on Kansas City. Sneed has been allowing a 73.7% catch rate and 103.6 passer rating since Week 5. 

**Update: With Amari Cooper out, Gallup will get steamed and end up as a popular play. I’ll get exposure to Gallup in cash with his target floor now raised and likely settling into the 7-9 target range, but in GPPs if he ends up as popular as I think he will be I’ll fade him. This news pushes me to more Elliott and Schultz exposure from this game as GPP stack and mini correlation targets.**

Despite finishing second in target share last week (15%), Gallup is more of an MME or onslaught play this week. He’ll run most (about 86%) of his routes on the outside, and with Lamb and Cooper hogging the deep targets and money looks near the goal line, he’s left as a thinner play. 

Adding Elliott is a way to be different with a Prescott stack, but also you can consider Dalton Schultz in that equation. Schultz has run a route on 87.3% of Dallas’s dropbacks with Blake Jarwin out. The problem for Schultz has been with the running backs involved in the passing game, and the return of Gallup his target share has been 9.5% (one red-zone target) over that same span. The matchup is juicy enough to consider him stack worthy. The Chiefs have allowed 641 receiving yards (fifth most) and six receiving touchdowns (third highest) to tight ends. 

Chiefs

That noise you just heard was 31 NFL teams collectively sighing and whispering, “He’s back.” Patrick Mahomes ripped the Raiders apart last week as Reid nudged their play-action usage a tad higher (30% of dropbacks). Mahomes completed 73% of his play-action throws with four of his passing touchdowns coming on play-action tosses. This week, Mahomes faces a beatable Dallas secondary allowing 7.6 yards per attempt (11th-highest). Dallas has been victimized by play-action this season allowing the seventh-highest touchdown rate (7.9%) and third-highest completion rate (74.6%) on these play concepts. Among quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks, Mahomes is seventh in play-action passer rating (116.1). 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s status is still up in the air. If he’s unable to get activated this week, Darrel Williams will lead the backfield. Williams isn’t in my GPP pool this week. The glow of 101 receiving yards in Week 10 can divert your attention away from the fact that Williams is one of the most inefficient backs in the NFL. He is currently outside the top 37 running backs in yards created per touch, breakaway run rate, juke rate, and evaded tackles. The Cowboys have allowed a 12.3% gash rate, but since Week 5, they are eighth in red zone rushing defense. They are also eighth in DVOA against pass-catching backs, so explosive plays and receiving upside probably aren’t in the cards for Kansas City’s lead in Week 11. 

Week 10

There are no surprises here: The top two stacking options with Mahomes are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. If Reid rachets up play-action, Hill will be the primary beneficiary, with Kelce close behind. Hill leads the team with 30 play-action targets (Kelce, 21) and 246 play-action receiving yards (Kelce, 210). Hill is seventh among wideouts with a 27.9% target share and third in red-zone targets (16). He’ll run about 55% of his routes out of the slot against Jourdan Lewis, who allows a 63.2% catch rate and 59.8 passer rating since Week 5. Lewis has been stout in slot coverage. Don’t be surprised to see Reid move Hill outside against Trevon Diggs, who has been since Week 6, allowing a 72.2% catch rate and 114.4 passer rating in coverage. 

Kelce is also stackable with Mahomes, but to be clear, Hill is the preferred option here. Kelce is third at the position in target share (22.4%) and fifth in weighted opportunity. The matchup up with Dallas is a good one who is 24th in DVOA against the position. The biggest problem for Kelce is his end-zone target share (one target), and red zone share (eight targets, 14%) has dried up. Kelce hasn’t seen more than one red-zone target in a game since Week 1 (two red-zone targets). 

As for the Chiefs’ tertiary receivers, I’ll be happily avoiding them. I won’t be chasing the Mecole Hardman DFS fallacy. Hardman has been one of the most unproductive players residing inside one of the NFL’s best offenses for quite some time. Over his last 18 games, he’s only surpassed 15 DK points once. Excuse me for not buying into that type of dubious fantasy track record. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes. Michael Gallup (cash)
GPP only: Dalton Schultz,  Travis Kelce

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

ARI -2, O/U 48

Pace and playcalling

The pace in this game is quite nice. Arizona is sixth in neutral pace followed by Seattle at 13th. The passing rates for both teams are horrendous. The Cardinals have dipped to 21st (55.7%) and the Seahawks sit at 19th (56.9%). 

Injuries

Arizona

• DeAndre Hopkins (WR) – OUT
• Kyler Murray (QB) – Game time decision
• Corey Peters (DT) – (Shoulder – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Justin Pugh (OL) – (Calf – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Seattle

• No notable injury designations

Cardinals

Last week displayed how things can go sideways fast with Colt McCoy under center. McCoy struggled with only 5.3 yards per attempt and the offense limped to a 10-point showing. The Seattle defense gets billed as a pushover matchup through the air, but they haven’t been. They are 19th in yards per attempt (7.1) allowed and have given up the third-fewest passing touchdowns (12). 

James Conner and Christian Kirk are the only Cardinals I’ll consider this week. Conner handled 13 touches last week turning them into 64 total yards. He played 82% of the snaps and ran a route on 51.4% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks. He faces a Seattle run defense that’s 11th in rushing yards allowed (1,122) and 21st in red zone rushing defense. They have allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate, so Conner will have to get there on volume or in the passing game. The Seahawks are 32nd in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against running backs in the passing game allowing the most receiving yards (684). Conner can have himself a day with checkdowns from McCoy against this defense. 

With Hopkins on the shelf, Kirk has taken up the No. 1 receiver mantle, seeing a 25.5% target share and 34.5% of the team’s air yards. Kirk has run 51% of his routes out of the slot in the last two games. That will match him up on Ugo Amadi for half the game who is allowing an 84.6% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating. 

Seahawks

Russell Wilson struggled mightily in his first game back, completing only 50% of his passes with 4.0 yards per attempt. I’m not a “need to see it first” type of DFS player, but this isn’t the matchup where I’m looking to get in early on Wilson. The Cardinals are fourth in pass-defense DVOA and have allowed the third-lowest yards per attempt (6.4) in the NFL. We have seen a long enough stretch to know they are legit. 

**Update:

Alex Collins has entered the GPP conversation this week. Pete Carroll has stated Rashaad Penny will be more involved, but Collins is still likely the lead back in a sneaky good matchup. Collins is only a large field tournament option this week. In Weeks 7-8 with Collins and Penny active, Collins averaged 13 rushing attempts and 43% of the snaps played. He split the red zone rushing work with Penny, with each player getting two carries inside the 20. Since Week 5, Arizona ranks 31st in explosive run rate allowed and 11th in red zone rushing defense. Overall they have allowed the highest gash rate in the NFL and are 26th in stuff rate. If you want to toss Penny into a lineup or two in your 150, I won’t fight you. The matchup on the ground for both rushers is that good.

I’ll go back to DK Metcalf this week. While I’m not high on Wilson, as we’ve seen previously, one of these Seattle receivers can walk away with a nice stat line, and Wilson not absolutely smash. Metcalf has a 26% target share while dominating end zone (39%) and red zone looks (39%). Metcalf will run about 58% of his routes against Marco Wilson. Wilson has been torched this season, allowing a 75% catch rate and 130.4 passer rating. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: James Conner, DK Metcalf
GPP only: Christian Kirk

Core DFS Plays

Quarterback

• Dak Prescott
• Patrick Mahomes
• Josh Allen
• Lamar Jackson
• Tua Tagovailoa

Running Back

• Jonathan Taylor
• Nick Chubb
• AJ Dillon
• Myles Gaskin (cash)
• Ezekiel Elliott
• James Conner
• Jeff Wilson (cash)

Wide Receiver

High-priced:

• Tyreek Hill
• Stefon Diggs
• CeeDee Lamb
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Marquise Brown
• DK Metcalf

Mid-priced:

• Hunter Renfrow
• Jaylen Waddle
• Michael Gallup (cash)
• Tee Higgins

Tight End

• George Kittle
• Mike Gesicki
• Cole Kmet

Favorite GPP Stacks

• Dallas Cowboys
• Buffalo Bills
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Baltimore Ravens
• Miami Dolphins