Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Panthers vs. Falcons
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to notch 13.6 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to be much more involved in his offense’s run game this week (46.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (30.1% in games he has played).
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling with backup QB PJ Walker this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game.
- D’Onta Foreman has run for many fewer yards per game (37.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
- The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
