Week 1 NFL PrizePicks Picks

I am extremely excited to share that FTN will put an immense focus on Pick ‘Em games this NFL season. Be it PrizePicks, Underdog, Sleeper or even newer sites like Boom Fantasy, we have established ourselves as industry leaders when it comes to both useful tools and winning picks in the Pick ‘Em space.

The advantage of jumping on Week 1 props this early is obvious — though you have to tie up money for a bit, we’re going to see players more mispriced this far ahead of Week 1 than we will in any other week of the season. Some of our picks have already moved a ton, and we expect more and more to do the same. So there really is an advantage to getting your money in as quickly as possible on these (promo code FTN works on every Pick ‘Em site).

If you’re just as interested in Underdog picks, you can check out the Week 1 Underdog Picks video I did with the great Chris Meaney. In fact, a lot of the plays we love are at softer numbers on Underdog for the time being.

PrizePicks vs. Underdog

The first way in which we can find value on PrizePicks is by comparing the PrizePicks projections to the Underdog projections. Underdog has proven to be the “sharper” site, so typically, lines will move toward the Underdog projection. If we can beat PrizePicks to the punch, we’ll be in great shape.

C.J. Stroud 268.5 Passing Yards — More

Underdog has Stroud at 271.5 passing yards, and that was still one of my favorite plays from the video with Meaney. He went over this number in eight of 14 games before Tank Dell and Nico Collins were both injured, and now they have added Stefon Diggs. We project Stroud to lead the NFL in passing yards this season. Plus, Indianapolis was 31st in opponent plays per game, meaning they boost opponent play volume like few other teams. Extra opportunities for Stroud with weapons to make him even more efficient this year is a recipe for success. 

I’m guessing this line will close on both sites around 275, where I would still favor the over.

Russell Wilson 211.5 Passing Yards —Less

I’m not in love with this pick, but Underdog has Wilson at just 207.5 passing yards. We know Pittsburgh will be run-first, as will Atlanta. Both of these teams have the potential to grind games to a halt offensively and neither should be very explosive. 

Wilson’s stats from last season don’t mean much, obviously, but it’s worth noting that he went over this number in just seven of 15 games. While this offense could be better, it’s also far more likely that they’re in the type of positive game script that will keep Russ from airing it out.

If playing this, I would want to pair it with George Pickens under 57.5 receiving yards (he is only at 54.5 on UD).

Baker Mayfield 239.5 Passing Yards — Less

Mayfield is down at 233.5 passing yards on Underdog. I think the theme here is that PrizePicks knows its clientele — people want to be on the more side far more often than the less. Including the playoffs, Baker went over this number in 11 of 20 games last season, and we know the Washington pass defense is terrible, so even with the price discrepancy, I’m not a huge fan of this one. That said, if you want to make Baker over 233.5 pass yards a core pick on Underdog, you can try to middle that with some under 239.5 picks on PrizePicks. 

Best Picks

Zack Moss 67.5 Rush Yards — Under

Our very own Nelson Sousa has been banging the drum slowly on Chase Brown over Zack Moss all offseason, and I couldn’t agree more. But here’s the thing — even if Moss has the Joe Mixon role, this is a number that Mixon was only able to eclipse in five of 15 games last season! And you’re now asking Moss to do that against a stellar Patriots defense? I don’t see it. This is still one of my favorite plays on the board despite the fact that we got it to subscribers as part of a 6-Pick Underdog Play almost a week ago at 72.5:

Amari Cooper 59.5 Receiving Yards — More

Shoutout to Sam Choudhury on this one — Cooper averaged 96 receiving yards in games Deshaun Watson started and finished last year. Ninety-six! In a game against his former team whose offense should force Cleveland to throw the ball throughout, I love this number and will be especially interested in any demons they put out there for him.

DK Metcalf 61.5 Receiving Yards — More

Metcalf went over this number in nine of 16 games last season and Denver was 24th in DVOA allowed to WR1s. Sometimes it’s just that simple. 

Tee Higgins 49.5 Receiving Yards — More

This number just feels low. Higgins only eclipsed it 50% of the time last year, but he was dealing with some nagging injuries that won’t be there in Week 1. Most importantly, New England has had a distinct pattern of taking away No. 1 WRs for years. Last year, they were No. 2 in DVOA allowed to WR1s but just 18th in DVOA allowed to WR2s. While there’s no guarantee that they will do the same with Bill Belichick out of town, it’s a fair assumption that his understudy Jerrod Mayo will follow his lead in that regard.

Dalton Kincaid 49.5 Receiving Yards — More

This is a bet on talent and role, but it’s also a bet on the matchup. Yes, Stefon Diggs is gone, and yes, I expect Kincaid to be the primary option in the passing game for Buffalo this season. But even if he’s not, he should be in Week 1. Arizona was 31st in DVOA allowed to TEs last year and 30th in DVOA allowed to “WR3s,” which often means the slot. Plus, it’s Week1, so even if Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, or some other new weapon emerges later in the season, there’s no question that Kincaid should be Allen’s go-to guy in this one.

Demons

PrizePicks has yet to release any demons, but there are a number of receivers with wide ranges of outcomes that I prefer to attack with demons instead of standard projections. For Week 1, this list includes:

George Pickens
Trey McBride
Drake London
Mike Evans (he’s at 64.5 on PP vs 62.5 on UD or he would have been one of the picks I wrote up above)
Terry McLaurin

I will update this article throughout the preseason as they add demons. For more information on what types of plays (3-Pick? 6-Pick? Power Play or Flex Play?) are optimal, either watch the Underdog video or join FTN with a DFS or VIP subscription.