Week 1 Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers

We finally got to enjoy NFL football over the weekend. After months of projecting stats and planting flags, the season finally started.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t the best offensive showing across the league. Only five teams had more than 30 points. Only two quarterbacks (Tua Tagovailoa and Matthew Stafford) had more than 300 passing yards. But none of that matters because we finally have football back in our lives.

We will once again be providing weekly fantasy analysis to get you through your leagues at FTNFantasy in 2024. That means looking at each week’s risers and fallers to help fantasy managers fine-tune their roster to push for a spot in their fantasy championship. It is never too early to hit the waiver wire to maximize your chances of winning.

Below, you’ll find the risers and fallers in fantasy after Week 1 of the regular season (minus tonight’s Jets/49ers game). 

Risers

Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints

There probably won’t be many times we can praise Derek Carr throughout the season, so let’s make sure to give him his props after Week 1.

Carr was extremely efficient in his first game of the season, completing 82% of his passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns against an overmatched Panthers defense. This game didn’t call for him to push the ball down the field (minus one deep shot touchdown to Rashid Shaheed) and allowed him to do damage utilizing his tight ends (six catches for 69 yards and two touchdowns) and running backs (six receptions for 40 yards). 

The Saints quarterback was rarely under pressure and enjoyed a 27-point lead at halftime, which made it easy for the team to run the ball. Carr has always been a fine quarterback without pressure, but with a stretch of games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons and Chiefs on the horizon, we will quickly find out if he’s a trustworthy fantasy option or the same old player he’s always been. 

Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens

We expected to see Derrick Henry dominate touches in the Ravens backfield while forcing defenses to decide between collapsing in on him or staying outside to corral Lamar Jackson. Instead, we witnessed Henry dominate the backfield in carries while handling a 46% snap share.

The surprise was Justice Hill pacing the backfield in touches with a 53% snap share. The rumor throughout the offseason was that Hill would have a presence in the backfield (and it certainly helped that the Ravens trailed most of the game), and he made the most of his first opportunity.

Hill had just one carry for three yards but finished tied for second on the team in receptions (6) and third in receiving yards (52) out of the backfield. He added a sorely needed explosive element and was an excellent checkdown for Lamar, who was getting the ball out fast behind a struggling offensive line.

This offense will likely funnel through Henry in positive game scripts, but Hill has at least shown that he will provide explosiveness in the passing attack in the two-minute drill. 

He’s worth a bench stash in fantasy going forward and would have big upside if Henry finally breaks down.

Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

There was plenty of intrigue around the Bengals backfield throughout the preseason with fantasy managers trying to figure out if Zack Moss or Chase Brown would be the player to target in the late rounds as an RB2. 

After one game, it seems that the answer is Zack Moss. 

Moss handled 33 of 51 snaps for the Bengals offense, carrying the ball nine times for 44 yards and a touchdown while adding two receptions on four targets for 17 yards. If there was ever a game for the Bengals to utilize the explosive Chase Brown, it would have been a game where they trailed the Patriots for the majority of the contest. 

Brown will likely see his role grow and get more run as the season progresses, but for now, this looks like a Moss-led backfield. If the Bengals can figure out their offense, that could be a good thing for fantasy managers who took a chance on him late in the draft. 

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions

All offseason, we heard positive reports from Dan Campbell about Jameson Williams’ growth as a wide receiver. It was hard to fathom after two seasons with an array of missed games due to injuries and a gambling suspension.

But in Week 1, we finally got to see the reason why Williams was taken with an early first-round pick in 2022. 

Williams torched the Rams during Sunday Night Football, catching five passes for 121 yards and a touchdown. The speedy third-year receiver not only showed his big play ability but also flashed the same “yards after catch” plays that were all over his film at Alabama. The Rams couldn’t stay in front of the receiver, and he made the most of his expanded role in 2024. 

There will be weeks where Williams takes a back seat to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta in the passing attack. But he also offers a different element than either of those players and has big potential to provide huge scoring outputs with a limited amount of targets.

Hopefully, Williams continues to see a steady workload in the passing attack. If he does, fantasy managers who gambled on his massive potential will surely be rewarded. 

Greg Dortch, WR, Arizona Cardinals

The Greg Dortch offseason hype paid off (if you bought into it) in Week 1. Dortch finished second on the team in targets (8) while leading in receptions (6) and receiving yards (47). Dortch ended the first game with more catches and receiving yards than the rest of the wide receiver room combined (four receptions for 21 yards).

At the very least, the prospect of Dortch earning targets in this passing attack is very real. The coaching staff and Kyler Murray heaped praise upon him throughout the entire summer, and it looks like his role in the offense is secure. However, it doesn’t seem likely that he will continue to run laps around Marvin Harrison Jr. as the team’s top receiving option.

Fantasy managers who stashed Dortch on the bench are feeling vindicated after Week 1 and should feel secure with him having a role in this offense as the explosive slot player. He will continue to add an element to the offense that nobody else does, even if the receiving work fluctuates every week. 

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Isaiah Likely will certainly be the most written-about waiver addition in articles across the fantasy scene this week. Likely led Baltimore’s passing attack with nine receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown and narrowly missed a second touchdown to tie the game in the fourth quarter. 

There was a lot of talk that Likely would carve out a consistent role in the offense even with Mark Andrews returning to full health. After the first game, that talk looks to be legitimate. 

Likely finished second to Andrews in snaps (59 to 53) and routes run (38 to 35) but earned a whopping 34% target share while operating as the primary slot receiver in Baltimore’s offense. Given how thin Baltimore’s receiving group is after Zay Flowers (and if you’re an optimist, Rashod Bateman), that is a role that isn’t going anywhere down the road.

Is it fair to expect Likely to command 12 targets a game? Absolutely not. But he is poised to smash his ADP and return exceptional value as a late-round tight end regardless of Andrews’ health. 

There will be inconsistency from him throughout the season, but he’s worthy of a waiver wire spot or FAAB bid this week given his ability to secure passes and generate mismatches on linebackers in the slot.

Fallers

Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns

This was going to be the year that Deshaun Watson finally turned it around and started justifying his contract. The team’s passing attack finally started to come together at the end of last season (albeit with Joe Flacco under center). Cleveland also wouldn’t be able to lean on Nick Chubb in the run game early in the year. The Browns invested in a second wide receiver (Jerry Jeudy) to give Watson options to complement Amari Cooper and David Njoku.

Unfortunately, Week 1 ended the same way most of Watson’s Cleveland career has – with everybody questioning if he can recover his Texans form, and the home crowd booing him after a series of questionable throws. 

Watson finished Week 1 completing 24-of-45 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions. While some of the struggles can be credited to Cleveland’s starting tackles missing the game against Dallas’ edge rushers, not all of it can. Watson continued to struggle with decision-making, timing and pushing the ball down the field. 

Browns fans (and fantasy managers) are starting to lose hope. Watson will need to start showing some of his vintage playmaking ability quickly, or he may find himself watching Jameis Winston under center (while enjoying his fully guaranteed contract that isn’t going anywhere). 

Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans

Up until kickoff, the message about the Titans backfield was to expect a “1A/1B situation.” Well, that certainly wasn’t what we got in Week 1 against the Bears.

On paper, it was a fairly balanced backfield approach. Pollard played 39 snaps compared to Spears’ 29. However, the workload told a far different story. 

Pollard finished the game with 16 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown while adding three receptions (on four targets) for 12 yards. Meanwhile, Spears handled just four carries for 21 yards and had four receptions (on four targets) for 11 yards. More importantly, Pollard looked very explosive in his first game with the Titans after struggling through his ankle recovery in 2023. 

Spears will certainly break off big plays in this offense, especially behind an offensive line that looks to be improved. However, it seems like the Titans are more than happy to lean on Pollard in positive game scripts, which caps the upside of Spears going forward. 

The Packers WR group

We got what we expected from the Packers in Week 1. Four different wide receivers (Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks) played at least 30 of the team’s 67 snaps. All four players ran at least 15 routes and had at least three targets. 

Sure, Reed paced the group from a fantasy standpoint (four receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown with one carry for 33 yards and a rushing touchdown), but these snap shares suggest that the Packers are going to continue to be a frustrating group given the ability to spread the ball around.

However, with Jordan Love set to miss a minimum of two weeks (and possibly longer), this entire group becomes a headache that is impossible to predict. 

For at least one week, we will see Malik Willis and his 52.2% completion percentage under center (Green Bay has already said he will start Week 2). The prospect of Ryan Tannehill joining the team is also very much alive. Neither of those things feel particularly good for a receiver group with a lot of versatile pieces and no true alpha receiver.

The best bet going forward is to trust Reed (given his gadget role in the offense), but the truth is none of these players may have big weeks with Love on the bench. A messy situation got much messier thanks to his injury against the Eagles.

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Week 1 was not great for the fantasy managers who believed that Anthony Richardson would amplify Michael Pittman after a strong 2023 season. 

Last year, Pittman operated as the unquestioned WR1 with Gardner Minshew under center. Pittman had 109 receptions for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns in 2023 while feasting on quick throws from Minshew. Unfortunately, the short-to-intermediate areas of the field are not where Richardson thrives.

Pittman was once again highly targeted against the Texans (7), but he hauled in just four passes for 31 yards in a game where Richardson completed just 9-of-19 passes. Instead, Richardson was taking haymaker shots down the field (and completing them) on his way to 212 passing yards and two touchdowns (with an interception). That just isn’t the area where Pittman wins.

There will be good games for Pittman, especially with his role as the “first read in an RPO-heavy offense” with Richardson under center. However, it seems like a long shot that he will return value on his Round 3 ADP throughout most of the summer. 

He’s a good player tethered to a quarterback who isn’t good where he wins. And that will be a consistent problem in fantasy. 

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

Nobody knew how Buffalo’s passing offense would shake out with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis playing elsewhere. The receiver group held plenty of uncertainty, which led many to tie their hopes to Dalton Kincaid emerging as the top receiving threat in his second season.

That may have been the wrong choice if Week 1 is an indication of how the season will go. 

Kincaid did see his role grow within the offense, logging a team-high 51 snaps on 61 plays. He also finished second behind Keon Coleman in routes run (25). Unfortunately, he finished with just two targets, one reception and 11 yards. He also spent an annoying amount of time rotating with Dawson Knox (similar to 2023). 

The Bills selected Kincaid in the first round of the NFL draft in 2023 with the belief that he had the athleticism to emerge as a viable middle-of-the-field threat in the offense. Unfortunately, that role has yet to manifest for the young tight end.

Hope is not lost, but it is hard to see him earning consistent targets in the offense even with an ambiguous receiving group.