Way-too-early mock draft - 2022 NFL Draft

If you know anything about me, you probably realized years ago that I am obsessed with the NFL draft. It’s my Super Bowl. Since 2019, I am No. 3 in total FantasyPros mock draft points and the only person to finish in the top 20 each year.

I don’t mean to brag. Rather, I mean to convey the true depths of degeneracy: I’m obsessed with the draft in a way that few people in life are ever interested in anything.

It’s a sickness. And the only cure for it is an updated version of my way-too-early 2022 mock.

2022 NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School
1	Houston Texans	Spencer Rattler	QB	Oklahoma
2	Detroit Lions	Sam Howell	QB	North Carolina
3	New York Jets	Kayvon Thibodeaux	EDGE	Oregon
4	Cincinnati Bengals	Derek Stingley	CB	LSU
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kyle Hamilton	S	Notre Dame
6	Philadelphia Eagles	Kedon Slovis	QB	USC
7	New York Giants	Evan Neal	OT	Alabama
8	Las Vegas Raiders	DeMarvin Leal	EDGE	Texas A&M
9	Atlanta Falcons	Drake Jackson	EDGE	USC
10	Carolina Panthers	Malik Willis	QB	Liberty
11	New York Giants	Kaiir Elam	CB	Florida
12	Minnesota Vikings	George Karlaftis	EDGE	Purdue
13	Washington Football Team	Desmond Ridder	QB	Cincinnati
14	Pittsburgh Steelers	J.T. Daniels	QB	Georgia
15	Arizona Cardinals	Sevyn Banks	CB	Ohio State
16	Philadelphia Eagles	Zion Nelson	OT	Miami (FL)
17	Denver Broncos	Christian Harris	LB	Alabama
18	New England Patriots	Zach Harrison	EDGE	Ohio State
19	Dallas Cowboys	Jalen Wydermyer	TE	Texas A&M
20	Los Angeles Chargers	Chris Olave	WR	Ohio State
21	Philadelphia Eagles	Kenyon Green	G	Texas A&M
22	Tennessee Titans	Rasheed Walker	OT	Penn State
23	New Orleans Saints	Garrett Wilson	WR	Ohio State
24	New York Jets	Aidan Hutchinson	EDGE	Michigan
25	Green Bay Packers	John Metchie III	WR	Alabama
26	Cleveland Browns	Justyn Ross	WR	Clemson
27	Miami Dolphins	Jordan Battle	S	Alabama
28	Baltimore Ravens	Charles Cross	OT	Mississippi State
29	Detroit Lions	George Pickens	WR	Georgia
30	Buffalo Bills	Isaiah Spiller	RB	Texas A&M
31	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Nik Bonitto	EDGE	Oklahoma
32	Kansas City Chiefs	Treylon Burks	WR	Arkansas

2022 NFL Draft trades

I almost never project trades in my mocks, but a number of transactions for the 2022 draft have already taken place.

Here are the traded picks for Round 1.

Pick No. 11: To Giants from Bears in trade up for quarterback Justin Fields
Pick No. 16: To Eagles from Dolphins in trade up for No. 6 pick in 2021 draft
Pick No. 21: To Eagles from Colts in trade for quarterback Carson Wentz (assuming certain stipulations are satisfied)
Pick No. 24: To Jets from Seahawks in trade for safety Jamal Adams
Pick No. 27: To Dolphins from 49ers in trade up for No. 3 pick in 2021 draft
Pick No. 29: To Lions from Rams in trade for quarterback Matthew Stafford

As my board stands now, the Lions, Jets and Giants each have two 2022 first-rounders, and the Eagles have three.

NFL Draft order – 2022

I have used team futures odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to set the draft order.

The Texans have the longest odds at +20000 to win the Super Bowl, so I have assigned them the No. 1 pick. The Chiefs have the shortest odds at +500, so they get pick No. 32.

It’s simple, but simplicity is sophistication.

Mock draft methodology

For this mock, I have generally endeavored to match prospect strength with potential team needs in the event that my proposed draft order is actually correct.

For example, if the Eagles play poorly enough in 2021 to earn the No. 6 pick in 2022, then that will likely mean that Jalen Hurts is not the quarterback of the future in Philadelphia, in which case the Eagles will be strongly incentivized to take a passer in the draft — and quarterback Kedon Slovis (USC) is available at that pick in my mock and likely to be a top-10 selection based on the data I look at, so he goes to the Eagles at No. 6.

Creating a mock draft is not a science — especially not this far before the actual draft — but I try to be as methodical as possible.