Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The new and improved FTN NFL splits tool was recently launched on the suite of FTN websites. This is the most comprehensive and multi-faceted splits tool in the industry, serving as a staple for the season-long, daily fantasy and betting community.
(Take advantage of the FTNFantasy Platinum package for the 2021 season!).
The focus in this article, however, is on the season-long side. More specifically, I have identified three players to target in the later rounds of your fantasy football drafts and used the splits tool to justify my reasoning.
Gus Edwards is a late-round fantasy football gem
(ADP: 9th round, RB41)
No team ran the ball more than the Baltimore Ravens in 2020, as they hit the ground on just over 55% of their offensive plays last season. This bodes incredibly well for the backfield, Lamar Jackson’s Konami code upside, and provides a reason why JK Dobbins has received some buzz this offseason. The afterthought, however, has been their RB2 Gus Edwards. Currently being drafted behind players like James Conner, Zack Moss and David Johnson, Edwards has the potential to be a massive value.
While many question his workload, the FTN splits tool spells some of these concerns, as he’s logged at least 10 touches in 20 of his last 47 games.
While Dobbins is sure to take the majority of the carries, the Ravens have clearly been willing to deploy multiple backs in the run game. Given the fact that Edwards has averaged over 14 carries for 72.1 yards in games when he’s seen at least 10 touches, he provides standalone value as-is, and high-RB2 upside in the event that Dobbins misses time.
Jakobi Meyers has WR3 upside for a discount in fantasy football drafts
(ADP: 15th round, WR67)
The Patriots ran more plays than only three other teams last season (61.2 per game), so I understand that the passing attack may not be a priority on draft day. This has, however, driven Jakobi Meyers’ ADP far too low on draft boards.
Entering the season as the WR1 in New England, Meyers has been the star of the preseason, leading the league in passer rating on targets (158.3) while developing rapport with both Cam Newton and Mac Jones. So, it’s safe to say he’ll have an every-down role. While he may not get as many snaps as other receivers in the league based on the pace of the Patriots’ offense, he’s shown the ability to shine regardless.
Showcased in the FTN splits tool, Meyers saw at least 55 snaps in seven of his 12 games last season. In those games, he averaged over five catches for almost 65 yards per game with relatively poor quarterback play. Assuming his every-down role stays true, this feels like a baseline for his 2021 season. With the expectation that Mac Jones will eventually take over as the starter, Meyers’ ceiling will continue to climb with a pass-first quarterback. Simply put, he’s too cheap. Take advantage.
(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)
Irv Smith is a fantasy football breakout candidate
(ADP: 9th round, TE12)
Smith’s ceiling has always been something fantasy players have been longing to see, and 2021 may be the best shot we’ve had at it since he entered the NFL.
Over the last two seasons, Smith has split tight end duties in Minnesota with Kyle Rudolph, who made his way to the New York Giants this offseason. While Rudolph’s role had diminished over this span relative to what it was in 2017-2018, he still played 78% of the snaps in 2019 and 53% of the snaps in 2020. With him being out of the picture, Smith should see his 50% snap share from 2020 rise to more of a monopoly at the position.
The tight end position is a wasteland in fantasy football, so getting a baseline of five targets per game feels like a reasonable target for someone with Smith’s current draft capital.
Using those five targets as a baseline, Smith has logged six games over his two seasons at or above this mark. In those games, he’s averaged over four catches for just under 50 yards per game and just over a touchdown every four games. Extrapolating this over a full season, Smith would essentially pace for 79 catches on 104 targets for 847 yards and six touchdowns. Those 199.7 PPR points would have ranked him as the overall TE3, behind only Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Given how easy it is to “pop” as a tight end in fantasy, and the opportunity that presents itself for Smith, he’s one of the best late-round targets at the position. As Derek Brown and Adam Pfeifer say – let Irv swerve.
Take advantage of the FTNFantasy Platinum package for the 2021 season!
