Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The word upside is defined as an upward trend, something with a potential positive impact.
In the best ball world, upside equals gold.
We always draft players that we feel provide value, but we really love players that not only provide value, but bring the possibility to far exceed their baseline projection. There is always an inherent risk, but the reward of an individual’s seasonal upside is tantalizing.
After completing 35 best ball drafts at Underdog, here are the players who provide the biggest upside when compared to their current ADPs.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Denver Broncos
ADP 166.6, RB52
Most fantasy drafters are making the mistake of avoiding this crowded Denver backfield. I’m embracing it.
For years, there was trepidation when approaching the New England backfield due to touch uncertainty. However, players such as Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis continued to find a way onto the rosters of fantasy football champions. With uncertainty comes opportunity.
Head coach Sean Payton has no loyalty to presumed RB1 Javonte Williams. Denver traded up in the 2021 draft to select Williams, but head coach Vic Fangio was subsequently fired after a cumulative 19-30 record. Expectations were high for Williams’ sophomore campaign but came crashing down after Williams a season-ending knee injury early in 2022.
Since joining the Broncos in 2023, Payton has signed veteran Samaje Perine, cultivated UDFA Jaleel McLaughlin and selected rookie Audric Estimé in the fifth round of this year’s draft. I don’t think Williams and Perine are both on this roster to start 2024. The Broncos would save $1.8 million with a dead-cap number of roughly $900K by releasing Williams and could save about $3 million releasing Perine.
McLaughlin’s salary is an affordable $900K, and he returns after averaging a robust 5.4 yards per carry as a rookie. Per FTN Fantasy, McLaughlin also ranked first in targets per route run, proving he is a versatile back that can excel regardless of down and distance. Going as the overall RB52, McLaughlin profiles as the perfect upside candidate: low risk with a possible massive reward as an overall RB2.
Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams
ADP 124.6, RB39
I just don’t believe in Kyren Williams.
Despite well-below-average athletic metrics, Williams enjoyed a breakout season in 2023, finishing as the mind-blowing overall RB2 in fantasy points per game. He buoyed a Week 2 opportunity into a season stat line that included nine 100-yard or more opportunities in just 12 games.
Fool me twice? Shame on me.
The Rams were so impressed by Williams’ stellar season that they used a third-round pick on Michigan running back Blake Corum, who is faster (4.53) and stronger than Williams. It is already reported that Williams is again battling a nagging foot injury for the fourth time in just two seasons. The Rams’ coaching staff has already been vocal about Corum becoming a true three-down running back, creating even more opportunities for the highly productive Michigan product.
Williams had everything go right for him in 2023, but the production was more about the Rams system than his talent. If Corum finds his way to a significant time share or beneficiary of an injury to Williams, he will be this year’s fantasy football league-winner.
It is absolutely in the range of outcomes that 2024 Blake Corum becomes 2023 Kyren Williams, and at RB39 you are spending minimal risk for a huge upside payout.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP 50.2, WR30
The Jaguars have a whopping 251 vacated targets from last season, headlined by the departures of Calvin Ridley (136 targets) and Zay Jones (64). This leaves 27-year-old Christian Kirk with a fantasy football ADP oozing with upside.
Kirk entered 2023 coming off a stellar season that produced career highs in targets (133), receptions (84), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (8). A core muscle injury ended his season in Week 13, but all reports are that Kirk is completely healthy and focused on returning to his elite 2022 form. Per our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool, everything’s better with a healthy Christian Kirk, especially quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Kirk’s primary competition for targets are tight end Evan Engram, veteran wideout Gabe Davis and rookie wideout Brian Thomas. It is very reasonable to see Kirk exceed his career highs in all major receiving categories as the clear WR1 in a Jacksonville offense that ranked seventh in team pass attempts per game. I am gobbling up Christian Kirk at his current mid to low-end WR3 range in fantasy drafts.
Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks
ADP 186.6, TE24
This is a pick based on athleticism and draft capital. Fant has elite size at 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, with incredible speed (4.5) and a massive catch radius. He has played 15 or more games in each of his five NFL seasons, and looked like he was on the precipice of stardom in his first three seasons in Denver. Fant increased his targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns in each of those first three campaigns, but since his trade to Seattle, Fant has been a complete bust.
He is coming off a season with just 43 targets and 32 receptions, despite playing in all 17 games. This has plummeted his ADP to 186.6, making him available as a tight end selection in the 17th and 18th rounds.
So, why the belief in Fant?
He is now the clear TE1 in Seattle after the departure of both Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. Fant has steadily improved his blocking ability each season, providing more versatility and opportunity to stay on the field. As Fant openly admitted, the new Seattle coaching staff convinced him to stay with the Seahawks, revealing their plans for an increased workload.
I still believe in Fant’s talent, and his efficiency has remained constant despite his decreased volume. Per FTN Fantasy, Fant ranked third among all tight ends with 9.7 yards per target. He is basically free in best ball drafts but has as much athleticism as any other tight end in football. All he needs is a chance, will the new Seattle coaching staff bring out his immense fantasy upside?
