Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
If you’re entering the Best Ball Mania ll tournament on Underdog Fantasy versus a field of 155,520 other entries, the backbone of solid roster construction that I discuss here is essential to make it past the qualifiers (Weeks 1-14). But also looking at micro-edges to exploit in the quarterfinals, semifinals and championship rounds (Weeks 15-17) will help you gain leverage on the field in hopes to take down the whole thing and pocket that sweet $1,000,001 grand prize.
One of those points of emphasis to include in your process as you draft is the schedule. Which teams have a cakewalk schedule during these pivotal weeks, and which players does that advantage lean toward? That’s what we’re here to discuss today. Yes, I know it’s early, and there are many weeks to play out, but if you’re drafting early and building a portfolio of teams, these are the small wrinkles you have to include in the process.
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All schedules referenced are Weeks 15-17 with defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders.
Underdog Fantasy – Passing Attacks to Target
Jacksonville Jaguars – Easiest projected schedule
(Opponents – 2020 Pass Defense DVOA Rank: HOU-29th, NYJ-28th, NE-18th)
Trevor Lawrence is set up to light it up in Weeks 15 and 16 before running into the Patriots in the final week of the contest. The Texans and Jets still boast horrendous defenses, so it’s not far-fetched to expect them to post similar finishes to last year’s rankings of 22nd and 24th versus deep passing. Lawrence will have the deep shots dialed up in Darrell Bevell’s offense.
San Francisco 49ers – Second easiest projected schedule
(Opponents – 2020 Pass Defense DVOA Rank: ATL-19th, TEN-30th, HOU-29th)
Kyle Shanahan’s aerial attack squares off against three defenses that ranked first, fourth and eighth in most passing yards allowed in 2020. The Titans did address the secondary in the draft, but Caleb Farley will still be a rookie flanked by a 32-year-old Janoirs Jenkins. George Kittle could have a field day in championship week versus a defense that ranked 31st in DVOA versus the tight end in 2020.
Denver Broncos – Fourth easiest projected schedule
(Opponents – 2020 Pass Defense DVOA Rank: CIN-17th, LVR-26th, LAC-17th)
The Broncos could be one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL this year, but their inclusion here shows there are multiple ways to approach stacking this offense. The Bengals outside tandem of Darius Phillips and Chidobe Awuzie isn’t one to fear. The Raiders defense is atrocious from top to bottom, so pick your poison, but Trayvon Mullen and Damon Arnette can’t hope to contain Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy running deep. K.J. Hamler also becomes an interesting target versus Chris Harris in the slot Week 17. Harris has fallen off a cliff and can’t keep up with deep speed. Hamler could burn him deep for multiple scores.
Arizona Cardinals – Seventh easiest projected schedule
(Opponents – 2020 Pass Defense DVOA Rank: DET-32nd, IND-8th, DAL-21st)
Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal raid offense faces off against two defenses (Detroit and Dallas) that ranked 31st and 25th against short passing last year. They’ll get to stretch their legs against the Colts sandwiched in the middle. Rock Ya-Sin and Xavier Rhodes are fleet-footed, and it showed last season, ranking 27th against deep passing.
Underdog Fantasy – Rushing Attacks to Target
Los Angeles Chargers – Easiest projected schedule
(Opponents- 2020 Rush Defense DVOA Rank: KC-31st, HOU-29th, DEN-25th)
Austin Ekeler will go wild against a perpetually struggling Chiefs’ run defense that surrendered the third-most receptions to running backs last year and the Texans, who will be among the league’s worst. If the Broncos surprise against the Chargers’ defense, this has the trappings of a sneaky shootout in championship week.
Denver Broncos – Second easiest projected schedule
(Opponents – 2020 Rush Defense DVOA Rank: CIN-21st, LVR-28th, LAC-26th)
Javonte Williams could carry best ball teams to title week running all over the Bengals and Raiders, who allowed the fourth- and eighth-most rushing yards last season. Denver quietly ranked eighth in open field yards last year, so the potential is there for multiple back-breaking runs from Williams in Weeks 15 and 16.
Arizona Cardinals – Seventh easiest projected schedule
(Opponents – 2020 Rush Defense DVOA Rank: DET-27th, IND-9th, DAL-23rd)
Much like the Broncos, the Cardinals make this list twice. While the easy standout target considering that fact is Kyler Murray, don't sleep on Chase Edmonds and James Conner here. The Lions and Cowboys run defenses remain putrid on paper after allowing the second and sixth most rushing touchdowns last season.
Cleveland Browns – 10th easiest projected schedule
(Opponents – 2020 Rush Defense DVOA Rank: LVR-28th, GB-18th, PIT-5th)
Nick Chubb could carry best ball teams to Week 17. The Browns offensive line will be a top-three unit teamed with a surprising defense. The positive game scripts in these two games could allow Chubb to see 20-25 touches. The Steelers run defense is quietly terrible versus break-away runners. Last year, they ranked 22nd in open field yards, the 14th most explosive runs in the NFL.
Best Ball Mania ll – Cheat code stacks to target
Washington Football Team – Philadelphia Eagles
Week 15-17 Schedules:
WAS: PHI, DAL, PHI
PHI: WAS, NYG, WAS
These two teams are the only teams in the NFL that play each other multiple times in these three weeks. The correlation stack of these two teams could result in a Best Ball Mania ll winning formula. There are multiple ways to approach this while looking at defensive schemes and matchups this early.
Philadelphia’s new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon helped oversee the cornerbacks with the Colts over the last three years. If Gannon’s defense mirrors similar concepts, they’ll be very zone-heavy. Over the last three seasons, the Colts’ corners and linebackers were in zone coverage at least 60% of their snaps to as high as 81.8%. This led to the funneling of targets underneath and DVOA ranks of 18th, seventh and 25th versus running backs and fourth, 18th and 29th versus tight ends. The easy targets for drafts are Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. Although I’m down on Logan Thomas and J.D. McKissic overall this year, I’m willing to consider them in this instance in Best Ball Mania ll.
The prime targets for Philadelphia here are Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor. Ron Rivera’s defense has consistently bled out points to the tight end position over the last three years, ranking 17th, 22nd and 24th in DVOA. Reagor and Smith become interesting versus Jimmy Moreland, who was overall solid but allowed a 72% catch rate overall in slot coverage.
