TwoGun’s NFL DFS Picks for Week 7

I’m going to start this article with some Captain Obvious statements:

1. When a chalk defense (I almost always fade the chalk defenses) scores a quick fumble-6 on a BS incomplete pass, that’s bad for me.
2. When I am highly leveraged to a wide receiver and his quarterback only throws for 95 yards, that’s bad for me.
3. When the mega chalk running back is mediocre all game but manages to get to value in the last quarter, that’s bad for me.

Oftentimes, the key to looking at a play and a trend is to decide on its realistic likelihood of sustainability. Is it really sustainable for a quarterback to keep throwing for less than 100 yards, or for a quarterback to keep throwing 50 or more passes a game? Is it sustainable to expect a player to continue to get multiple touchdowns a game, or for a star player to never get any touchdowns at all?

Will the chalk defense always get that quick fumble-6?

We’re at the point in the season where the public will start to blindly follow some trends, even if they clearly aren’t sustainable. The best contrarian, GPP-winning positions are often spotting these situations and taking a different approach.

This doesn’t mean all of my core plays or favorite picks are contrarian/trend-regression plays. But I tend to stick by a few of them, even if it’s starting to get silly.