Travis Kelce 2022 Prop Bets: Receiving Yards, TD Predictions

Travis Kelce has been the best receiving tight end in football since 2016. Even before Patrick Mahomes arrived, he made three consecutive Pro Bowls and topped 80 receptions and 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons. With Mahomes, Kelce has hauled in at least 90 catches and 1,100 yards – which is where his 2022 prop totals sit – in each of the last four years.

As for touchdowns, his 2022 prop is set at 9.5. Kelce caught 9 touchdown passes last season and, since 2018, he’s averaged 9.44 touchdowns per 17 games. 

In the offseason, the Chiefs traded his running mate Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. It remains to be seen exactly how that deal impacts the star tight end’s overall production, so let’s talk through it in the context of his prop totals for 2022.

Travis Kelce Prop Bets for 2022

(All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

How Many Receptions will Travis Kelce Have in 2022?

Over 90.5 (-120)

Tight ends haven’t exactly thrived at age 33 and beyond, but Travis Kelce may very well end up being the greatest receiving tight end ever when he’s done. He’s surpassed 90.5 receptions every year since he’s been linked up with Patrick Mahomes, and 2022 may look different, but it will end similarly.

In years past, the Kansas City passing game has relied almost exclusively on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Now, Hill is gone, but the Chiefs added a trio of receivers to replace him. Sure, Mahomes has more options, but that mostly means there are numerous weapons for the defense to account for. That should limit Kelce’s double teams and help coverage while Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s and Skyy Moore’s speed stretch the field enough to let the tight end dominate in the short passing game.

Tyreek Hill also ranked seventh in the NFL in first read targets according to FTNBets advanced receiving stats. Kelce already received his fair share (second among TEs), but he should pick up a lot of Hill’s. First read targets are about talent, trust from the quarterback and play design. While the Chiefs’ new ancillary pieces are nice assets, they likely won’t steal too many first reads away from the best tight end in football.

Elite consistency and a chance for more designed targets have me in on over 90.5 receptions for Travis Kelce.

How Many Receiving Yards will Travis Kelce Have in 2022?

Over 1,100.5 (-110)

Similar to his reception total, Kelce has hit this number in four straight seasons. In 2021, however, his targets and aDOT decreased while he also dropped a couple more balls than usual. Is that reason to fade him? 

Nope. He enters 2022 as the unquestioned No. 1 receiver in this offense and, last year, he churned out his highest YAC per reception total in the last four seasons, showing he’s still elusive enough to make defenses pay.

Last season, opposing teams attempted to force Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to throw the ball underneath, which resulted in plenty of dumpoffs to Kelce with room to work after the catch. Without Hill, a couple things could happen. Defenses could double Kelce, they could attempt to take away short yardage opportunities or they could end up playing the Chiefs like they did last year because Mahomes is still the QB and he still has weapons with speed.

I lean toward the latter. Of course, Kelce will likely see some more double teams and help coverage without Hill, but not enough to fade him. I also have unwavering trust in Andy Reid to be creative and get his best receiver the ball as much as possible. Kelce has managed to hit 1,100 yards each of the last four seasons despite missing a couple games, too.

A prolonged injury absence would naturally kill the over, but I’ll take my chances on one of the most reliable receiving weapons in the NFL.

How Many Touchdown Receptions Will Travis Kelce Have in 2022?

Under 9.5 TD Receptions (-115)

Kelce is set up to have another great season, but 9.5 receiving touchdowns is a touch too high. He’s surpassed the number twice and he fell a half-touchdown short last season. While Hill’s absence could lead to increased targets or a larger focus in the offense for Kelce, it won’t necessarily translate to touchdowns. 

MVS, Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman have the ability to score from anywhere on the field, the stable of running backs will get their fair share at the goal line and JuJu Smith-Schuster proved to be a solid red zone weapon through the first four years of his career. Kelce could very well be hyper-targeted in the end zone as the team’s clear best option, but I’m anticipating some tricks and creativity from an Andy Reid offense with a crop of versatile skill players. 

Kelce should be the main character between the 20s, but I have trouble betting my hard-earned money on double-digit touchdowns when he’s surrounded by a strong supporting cast.

How to Bet Travis Kelce Props

If you are looking to bet on props like receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, FTNBets has all the tools to get you started. Sign up for a sportsbook account using our affiliate link and take a deep dive into all the different NFL futures markets legal books offer. 

Travis Kelce’s 2022 receiving yards prop is set at 1,100.5 yards and the over has -110 odds. In this example, you would need to bet $110 that Kelce will have more than 1,100.5 receiving yards in order to make a $100 profit.

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