Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Sunday slate of NFL Week 4 is almost set to kick off, and PointsBet has a few interesting prop numbers that we can take advantage of this week. Using the FTN projections, I ran our numbers against the numbers the sports books are offering via our FTN Bets Prop Shop and looked for the best values. Here are the ones I am playing this weekend.
Top 3 prop bets at PointsBet for NFL Week 4
Here are three plays I absolutely love on PointsBet for this week.
Expect Corey Davis to rack up receptions against his former team
Last week we hit on this exact same prop, and I am going back to the well against a putrid Titans defense at plus money. The Jets passing attack is bad, but Corey Davis has been one of the few bright spots. As Gilles Gallant pointed out in his article this week, the Titans have allowed at least 6 catches to the opposing team’s No. 1 WR option in each of the first three games of the season. Davis has gone over this number in two of three games so far, with the outlier being the disastrous showing the Jets had against the Patriots in Week 2. The Patriots defense had more passes completed to them in that game than Davis did, but that has been the exception and not the rule for him this season.
Davante Adams should score early Sunday
Those who followed me into the +700 number on DraftKings last week for Davante Adams were rewarded when he found paydirt. It was a little nerve-wracking as he was tackled at the 1-yard line on the play before the touchdown after a long completion and I was worried they would run it in. One of the reasons I love this play is that Adams scored a bunch of first touchdowns last year. The Packers run this motion play with Adams down near the goal line. They start him out wide and motion him to the middle to try to catch a defense switching. Adams and Aaron Rodgers then have the option of cutting the motion short and throwing a flare pass to Adams zigging outside the defense, or if passed off he continues in motion and they do the same thing on an out after he motions to the other side of the formation. We have seen them run it over and over the past few seasons with a ton of success. At this point we are playing with house money on Adams first TD props and I’m doubling down this week as he is still a good value to do it again.
More production coming for Sam Darnold
Christian McCaffrey left last week’s Carolina game early, and it was ugly in the first half for the Panthers. They opened it up in the second half on the back of Sam Darnold’s arm. If the Panthers are going to win without CMC, then Darnold is going to have to throw to keep them in games. Carolina is a dog to the high-powered Dallas Cowboys offense, which means they are going to have to put up points to hang around. If they are trailing — as many expect — the offense should skew pass heavy as well. Carolina does have weapons in the passing game, some who have even been underutilized (Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall) to this point in the season. Losing McCaffrey means more opportunities for everyone else to make plays and that should lead to more than one pass into the end zone for the Panthers QB.
