Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Super Bowl matchup is set, and the books have already released prop bets for the big game. The lines are likely to move throughout the week as it gets closer to kickoff, which means we want to get our money down as soon as possible. With that in mind, here are the best prop plays available on PointsBet.
Top 3 prop bets at PointsBet for the Super Bowl
Here are three prop plays I am looking at on PointsBet.
Cooper Kupp Scores Yet Again
(Anytime touchdown, -180)
This seems like a low number for an anytime TD, but Cooper Kupp is deserving of it. The wide receiver Triple Crown winner has found the end zone 20 times this season. He’s scored in each of the last five games. The fair value on this prop is actually closer to -200, so even at an elevated -180, Kupp is still cheap compared to his likelihood to score.
Matthew Stafford Keeps His Passing Yards Low
(Under 285.5 passing yards, -125)
The only part of the Bengals defense that grades out above league average is their coverage ability. They have not allowed a 300-yard passer since the Jets pulled off a shocking upset almost three months ago. They have faced some of the league’s top passing attacks too during this run. The Bengals are utilizing a bend-but-don’t-break defensive strategy that allows runs and short passes, but takes away the deep stuff. They are forcing teams to dink and dunk down the field and limiting the HR opportunities. Maybe Matthew Stafford does break the trend and throw for 300, but if he does it is likely going to be on 45-50 attempts, and the chances of that happening are slim to none.
Matthew Stafford Gets to Run a Bit
(Over 5.5 rushing yards, -115)
A Matthew Stafford rushing prop? Seriously? I know what you guys are thinking, but the Bengals rush 3 and drop 8 more than any other team did in the NFL this year. When that happens, it is tough to find open receivers when everyone is double covered or bracketed. Sometimes the best thing to do is just tuck and run. Stafford is not going to tuck and run for 40-yard gains, but scrambling for two or three yards to keep yourself in positive situations is not out of the question. This line opened at 2.5 yards and was bet up to 5.5 on most books as people (Including myself) hammered that low yardage prop. Even at 5.5, I still think it’s below where it ultimately belongs at the end of the day.
