Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.
For all of this week’s best bets, make sure to check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars Week 15 Odds
- Bet: Jaguars -4.5
- Odds: -110
The Jaguars may be a square side this week. Based on what they’ve shown this season, I’m not sure they deserve to be favored by 4.5 points over anyone.
Still, I can’t help but fall for the trap given the dismissal of Urban Meyer. His tenure with the Jaguars can only be described as a massive disaster, with a new mishap popping up seemingly every week. It started small – remember the Tim Tebow signing? – but it escalated to him calling his assistant coaches losers and allegedly kicking his kicker.
Removing that black cloud from the organization has to be a breath of fresh air for all the players. I expect them to be focused and motivated to secure a victory in this matchup.
The fact that interim head coach Darrell Bevell will probably play his best players should help. Meyer got into a weird feud with James Robinson, which limited him to just 14 carries over his past two games. Robinson should get back on the field this week, and he can do some damage vs. the Texans. They rank just 28th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA.
The Jaguars have moved to five-point favorites at most locations, and they’ve even got to -5.5 at certain spots. That makes DraftKings Sportsbook one of the best locations to wager on them. You can still grab them at -4.5 there.
Pick: Jaguars -4.5
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens Week 15 Odds
- Bet: Packers ML
- Odds: -290
A -290 wager might not scream “value,” but it is when compared to other locations. The Packers are listed at around -320 at most sportsbooks, so you’re getting 30 cents of value at DraftKings. That’s quite a bit.
Additionally, I’m just not sure how the Ravens keep this game competitive. The Ravens are just too banged up at the moment.
The biggest news involves Lamar Jackson. He’s currently questionable with an ankle injury, and he’s missed practice all week. Head coach John Harbaugh told reporters that Jackson “has a chance” to suit up, but players who don’t get in even a limited practice rarely play. That means Tyler Huntley will likely make his second start of the year.
The Ravens managed to win Huntley’s first start of the year, but it was an ugly, hard-fought victory over the Bears. Huntley was not impressive in that outing, finishing with just 219 passing yards and one interception. Ultimately, he’s a significant downgrade from Jackson.
The Ravens are also down virtually every starting cornerback, which is a big deal against the Packers. Aaron Rodgers remains one of the best quarterbacks in football, so he should be able to have his way with this depleted unit.
Pick: Ravens ML
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills Odds
- Bet: Over 44.0
- Odds: -110
This number is at 44.5 across most of the industry, but I’ll gladly take the half-point of value on DraftKings Sportsbook. With most totals now settling under 50, every point of value matters.
The Panthers got off to a strong start this season defensively, but they have crumbled of late. They’ve allowed at least 27 points in each of their past three games, and those games have come against the Falcons, Dolphins and Football Team. None of those teams are offensive juggernauts.
The Bills represent a clear step up in weight class. They’ve been a bit inconsistent this season, but they still rank sixth in points per game and eighth in yards. They’ve also had a few monster performances, recording three games with at least 40 points.
I’m not sure if the Panthers can contribute much in the scoring column, but I think the Bills should get us most of the way there. If they can get to 31, I think the Panthers should be able to get us 14.
Pick: Over 44.0
